BUF beat CAR 4–2. BUF lost the expected-goals battle 2.1 to 3.6 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Ryan McLeod scored at 0:43 of the first, moving BUF’s win probability from 53% to 69%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CAR–BUF | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:43 |  BUF | Ryan McLeod from Connor Clifton, Beck Malenstyn | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P2 8:18 | BUF | Dylan Cozens from Alex Tuch | 0–2 | 73% → 88% |
| P2 19:56 | BUF | Ryan McLeod from Jason Zucker | 0–3 | 92% → 98% |
| P3 3:45 | CAR | Jaccob Slavin from Brent Burns, Jesperi Kotkaniemi | 1–3 | 1% → 7% |
| P3 16:50 | CAR | Martin NecasPP from Shayne Gostisbehere, Brent Burns | 2–3 | 1% → 9% |
| P3 19:36 | BUF | Ryan McLeodEN from Tage Thompson, Jason Zucker | 2–4 | 97% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaccob Slavin D | 20:39 | 1 | +0.89 | −0.05 | +0.92 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Martin Necas C | 19:33 | 1 | +0.75 | −0.08 | +0.85 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jackson Blake R | 13:11 | +0.26 | +0.08 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.02 | ||
| Juha Jaaska L | 10:43 | +0.20 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Roslovic C | 15:15 | +0.18 | +0.08 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.02 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 13:47 | +0.05 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Dmitry Orlov D | 19:29 | +0.04 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jalen Chatfield D | 16:09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Staal C | 11:36 | −0.01 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Eric Robinson L | 12:04 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Sean Walker D | 15:19 | −0.18 | +0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Drury C | 14:10 | −0.23 | +0.09 | −0.28 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 15:39 | 1 | −0.24 | +0.04 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Brent Burns D | 22:46 | 2 | −0.26 | +0.06 | −0.36 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 19:44 | 1 | −0.29 | −0.06 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Seth Jarvis R | 19:37 | −0.35 | −0.09 | −0.25 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sebastian Aho C | 20:40 | −0.37 | −0.06 | −0.34 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 19:56 | −0.37 | −0.01 | −0.38 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dustin Tokarski G | 57:43 | −0.90 |
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan McLeod C | 17:06 | 3 | +1.27 | +0.05 | +1.44 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.20 | −0.02 | |
| Dylan Cozens C | 13:38 | 1 | +0.76 | −0.03 | +0.83 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jack Quinn R | 13:25 | +0.15 | +0.14 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Owen Power D | 23:10 | +0.10 | +0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| JJ Peterka R | 13:35 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Henri Jokiharju D | 15:53 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Kozak C | 12:16 | −0.05 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 21:23 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Peyton Krebs C | 12:55 | −0.07 | +0.14 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Bowen Byram D | 21:34 | −0.08 | +0.07 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 19:55 | −0.09 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Zucker L | 16:01 | 2 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tage Thompson C | 15:00 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.04 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Benson L | 14:18 | −0.21 | +0.14 | −0.34 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Beck Malenstyn L | 15:05 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.17 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Connor Clifton D | 16:37 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Lafferty C | 13:25 | −0.30 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.05 | ||
| Alex Tuch R | 18:44 | 1 | −0.34 | +0.04 | −0.38 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen G | 60:00 | +0.64 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.