MTL beat UTA 5–3. MTL lost the expected-goals battle 3.7 to 4.1 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Cole Caufield scored at 6:33 of the third, moving MTL’s win probability from 48% to 77%. Karel Vejmelka allowed 1.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MTL–UTA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:11 | UTA | Josh DoanPP from Clayton Keller, Nick Schmaltz | 0–1 | 57% → 70% |
| P1 3:18 |  MTL | Mike Matheson from Cole Caufield, Lane Hutson | 1–1 | 31% → 47% |
| P1 19:06 | UTA | Nick Bjugstad from Michael Kesselring, Matias Maccelli | 1–2 | 54% → 71% |
| P2 10:40 | MTL | Patrik Laine from Alex Newhook, Alexandre Carrier | 2–2 | 26% → 47% |
| P2 18:34 | MTL | Kirby Dach from Lane Hutson | 3–2 | 47% → 72% |
| P3 3:07 | UTA | Logan Cooley from Clayton Keller, Nick Schmaltz | 3–3 | 26% → 52% |
| P3 6:33 | MTL | Cole Caufield from Lane Hutson, Mike Matheson | 4–3 | 48% → 77% |
| P3 16:15 | MTL | Kirby Dach from Alexandre Carrier | 5–3 | 89% → 99% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirby Dach C | 14:15 | 2 | +1.42 | −0.00 | +1.64 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.20 | −0.01 | |
| Cole Caufield R | 16:49 | 1 | 1 | +0.72 | +0.01 | +0.71 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Patrik Laine L | 14:19 | 1 | +0.62 | +0.06 | +0.76 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Mike Matheson D | 24:08 | 1 | 1 | +0.47 | −0.03 | +0.53 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Alexandre Carrier D | 21:17 | 2 | +0.14 | +0.15 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lane Hutson D | 21:41 | 3 | +0.11 | +0.10 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kaiden Guhle D | 22:29 | +0.04 | +0.12 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Armia R | 15:53 | +0.04 | +0.09 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Newhook C | 13:37 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| David Savard D | 15:48 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Arber Xhekaj D | 8:44 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Suzuki C | 17:55 | −0.08 | +0.05 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Christian Dvorak C | 16:56 | −0.15 | +0.04 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 15:57 | −0.20 | −0.03 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Gallagher R | 10:27 | −0.20 | +0.06 | −0.24 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Pezzetta L | 3:50 | −0.25 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | −0.01 | ||
| Josh Anderson R | 15:48 | −0.39 | −0.04 | −0.33 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Evans C | 16:25 | −0.58 | +0.13 | −0.76 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Samuel Montembeault G | 66:14 | +0.97 |
UTA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Bjugstad C | 14:02 | 1 | +0.97 | +0.18 | +0.80 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Doan R | 15:17 | 1 | +0.20 | −0.16 | +0.19 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.20 | −0.05 | |
| Ian Cole D | 19:40 | +0.12 | +0.10 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Kesselring D | 13:51 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Clayton Keller R | 21:52 | 2 | +0.12 | −0.17 | −0.13 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.40 | +0.00 | |
| John Marino D | 18:04 | +0.11 | +0.11 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matias Maccelli L | 15:11 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.24 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack McBain C | 7:22 | +0.06 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Michael Carcone L | 9:45 | +0.04 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Juuso Välimäki D | 17:13 | +0.01 | −0.16 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Schmaltz C | 22:11 | 2 | −0.09 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Kevin Stenlund C | 11:34 | −0.11 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 12:00 | −0.11 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Logan Cooley C | 24:50 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.19 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 24:07 | −0.24 | −0.26 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Olli Maatta D | 17:48 | −0.39 | −0.06 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Lawson Crouse L | 13:04 | −0.43 | +0.19 | −0.60 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Barrett Hayton C | 15:51 | −0.98 | −0.01 | −0.79 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka G | 58:18 | −1.82 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.