STL beat CGY 2–1. STL also won the expected-goals battle 2.4 to 1.9: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Radek Faksa scored at 11:11 of the third, moving STL’s win probability from 52% to 84%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CGY–STL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:49 | STL | Colton Parayko from Brayden Schenn, Cam Fowler | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P3 6:06 | CGY | Kevin Bahl from Martin Pospisil | 1–1 | 20% → 48% |
| P3 11:11 | STL | Radek Faksa from Tyler Tucker, Alexey Toropchenko | 1–2 | 52% → 84% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Bahl D | 20:33 | 1 | +0.85 | −0.02 | +0.86 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Rooney C | 10:19 | +0.17 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.20 | −0.02 | ||
| Rory Kerins C | 11:41 | +0.15 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Hanley D | 18:31 | +0.05 | +0.09 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Walker Duehr R | 9:04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Lomberg L | 10:30 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 25:36 | −0.04 | +0.03 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 19:54 | −0.04 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Bean D | 13:22 | −0.12 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakob Pelletier L | 13:32 | −0.12 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 17:49 | −0.24 | −0.17 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Matt Coronato R | 17:57 | −0.24 | −0.04 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Rasmus Andersson D | 24:37 | −0.29 | −0.09 | −0.21 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nazem Kadri C | 19:43 | −0.29 | −0.07 | −0.26 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Martin Pospisil C | 15:30 | 1 | −0.33 | −0.02 | −0.33 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Blake Coleman L | 18:15 | −0.36 | −0.05 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.01 | ||
| Brayden Pachal D | 13:51 | −0.37 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Backlund C | 17:15 | −0.44 | −0.05 | −0.36 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dan Vladar G | 58:01 | +0.04 |
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colton Parayko D | 25:35 | 1 | +1.04 | +0.26 | +0.75 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Radek Faksa C | 14:23 | 1 | +0.95 | +0.16 | +0.81 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Holloway L | 17:22 | +0.20 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.01 | ||
| Philip Broberg D | 20:04 | +0.10 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Faulk D | 18:37 | +0.08 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathieu Joseph R | 11:49 | +0.06 | +0.10 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Brayden Schenn C | 17:18 | 1 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Cam Fowler D | 25:05 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.13 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Neighbours L | 19:16 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 22:16 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.21 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexey Toropchenko R | 13:34 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.16 | −0.21 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Tucker D | 13:36 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Saad L | 8:32 | −0.13 | +0.04 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Kyrou R | 15:14 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Robert Thomas C | 19:36 | −0.20 | −0.04 | −0.18 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Alexandre Texier L | 7:05 | −0.20 | +0.07 | −0.27 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Suter D | 15:33 | −0.26 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.04 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Oskar Sundqvist C | 11:05 | −0.44 | +0.01 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Binnington G | 60:00 | +0.74 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.