CGY beat CHI 5–2. CGY also won the expected-goals battle 3.0 to 2.2: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Jakob Pelletier scored at 11:47 of the first, moving CGY’s win probability from 47% to 64%. Petr Mrazek allowed 1.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CGY–CHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:14 | CGY | Jakob Pelletier from Rory Kerins, Brayden Pachal | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 2:38 |  CHI | Louis Crevier from Lukas Reichel | 1–1 | 38% → 53% |
| P1 11:47 | CGY | Jakob Pelletier from Kevin Bahl, Rory Kerins | 2–1 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 14:08 | CGY | Mikael Backlund from Matt Coronato, Blake Coleman | 3–1 | 64% → 78% |
| P2 1:55 | CGY | Jake Bean from Yegor Sharangovich, Jakob Pelletier | 4–1 | 81% → 93% |
| P2 11:29 | CHI | Connor BedardPP from Seth Jones, Teuvo Teravainen | 4–2 | 5% → 16% |
| P2 13:38 | CGY | Yegor SharangovichSH from Jonathan Huberdeau | 5–2 | 86% → 96% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakob Pelletier L | 18:26 | 2 | 1 | +1.39 | +0.04 | +1.36 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Mikael Backlund C | 16:37 | 1 | +0.87 | +0.04 | +0.78 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Jake Bean D | 13:50 | 1 | +0.77 | −0.01 | +0.80 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 16:36 | 1 | 1 | +0.77 | −0.01 | +0.82 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Kevin Rooney C | 12:33 | +0.13 | −0.01 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.40 | −0.02 | ||
| Kevin Bahl D | 20:23 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 18:06 | 1 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Hanley D | 18:25 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Pachal D | 16:14 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Andersson D | 22:14 | −0.03 | +0.08 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Walker Duehr R | 11:13 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Lomberg L | 11:13 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 23:41 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Coronato R | 15:31 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Martin Pospisil C | 10:02 | −0.22 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.01 | ||
| Rory Kerins C | 14:57 | 2 | −0.23 | +0.02 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Nazem Kadri C | 18:07 | −0.47 | −0.02 | −0.40 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Blake Coleman L | 17:17 | 1 | −0.62 | +0.03 | −0.64 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dustin Wolf G | 59:35 | +0.26 |
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louis Crevier D | 20:34 | 1 | +0.61 | −0.04 | +0.87 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Connor Bedard C | 19:16 | 1 | +0.51 | −0.02 | +0.59 | +0.03 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Taylor Hall L | 13:12 | +0.16 | +0.00 | −0.06 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Alec Martinez D | 14:57 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 15:44 | 1 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Vlasic D | 25:54 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Wyatt Kaiser D | 20:25 | −0.01 | +0.05 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Dickinson C | 16:07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.08 | ||
| Nolan Allan D | 17:24 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Seth Jones D | 16:19 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Foligno L | 16:18 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lukas Reichel L | 13:16 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.07 | |
| Tyler Bertuzzi L | 15:04 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Patrick Maroon L | 10:00 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Frank Nazar C | 17:54 | −0.15 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Dach C | 13:15 | −0.26 | −0.00 | −0.24 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ilya Mikheyev R | 15:05 | −0.35 | +0.04 | −0.40 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Donato C | 13:16 | −0.52 | −0.03 | −0.27 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.20 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Petr Mrazek G | 60:00 | −1.91 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.