PHI beat FLA 4–3. PHI also won the expected-goals battle 3.2 to 2.1: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Noah Cates scored at 14:09 of the third, moving PHI’s win probability from 51% to 87%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | FLA–PHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:59 |  FLA | Sam ReinhartSH unassisted | 1–0 | 46% → 63% |
| P1 9:34 | FLA | Uvis Balinskis from Evan Rodrigues, Nate Schmidt | 2–0 | 63% → 77% |
| P2 7:51 |  PHI | Garnet Hathaway unassisted | 2–1 | 17% → 32% |
| P3 2:01 | PHI | Noah CatesPP from Travis Sanheim, Rasmus Ristolainen | 2–2 | 27% → 52% |
| P3 3:35 | FLA | Sam ReinhartPP from Matthew Tkachuk, Aleksander Barkov | 3–2 | 49% → 75% |
| P3 5:59 | PHI | Morgan FrostPP from Matvei Michkov, Jamie Drysdale | 3–3 | 24% → 52% |
| P3 14:09 | PHI | Noah Cates from Tyson Foerster, Egor Zamula | 3–4 | 51% → 87% |
Every player
Show both lineups
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Reinhart C | 21:53 | 2 | +1.18 | −0.33 | +1.58 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Uvis Balinskis D | 17:11 | 1 | +1.01 | −0.07 | +0.90 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Niko Mikkola D | 18:08 | +0.25 | +0.27 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anton Lundell C | 16:19 | +0.24 | +0.18 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Nosek L | 8:57 | +0.07 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mackie Samoskevich R | 7:29 | +0.05 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| A.J. Greer L | 8:11 | +0.05 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nate Schmidt D | 21:24 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jesper Boqvist C | 13:58 | −0.06 | +0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Tobias Bjornfot D | 14:21 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Bennett C | 16:56 | −0.21 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Gustav Forsling D | 23:04 | −0.30 | −0.12 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 18:06 | 1 | −0.41 | −0.21 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Eetu Luostarinen C | 15:52 | −0.48 | +0.26 | −0.72 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Carter Verhaeghe C | 17:02 | −0.50 | −0.23 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evan Rodrigues C | 12:20 | 1 | −0.61 | −0.19 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Dmitry Kulikov D | 20:19 | −0.63 | −0.36 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Aleksander Barkov C | 19:47 | 1 | −0.83 | −0.43 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.40 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky G | 57:40 | −0.09 |
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Cates L | 16:27 | 2 | +1.71 | +0.17 | +1.50 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Garnet Hathaway R | 11:14 | 1 | +1.06 | −0.05 | +0.91 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Jamie Drysdale D | 17:33 | 1 | +0.33 | +0.34 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Seeler D | 15:09 | +0.15 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Olle Lycksell R | 8:21 | +0.08 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam York D | 20:32 | +0.05 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matvei Michkov R | 17:25 | 1 | +0.00 | +0.39 | −0.41 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Travis Konecny R | 21:20 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.30 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.40 | −0.01 | ||
| Bobby Brink R | 14:33 | −0.01 | +0.18 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Sanheim D | 24:10 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.07 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Scott Laughton C | 14:45 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Morgan Frost C | 17:08 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.07 | −0.29 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.20 | −0.02 | |
| Tyson Foerster R | 16:49 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.13 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Poehling C | 13:09 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Egor Zamula D | 14:56 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.14 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 22:12 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.06 | −0.24 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Owen Tippett R | 19:20 | −0.39 | −0.02 | −0.36 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Couturier C | 10:33 | −0.48 | +0.06 | −0.35 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Samuel Ersson G | 59:44 | −0.71 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.