ANA beat CAR 3–2 in overtime. ANA lost the expected-goals battle 2.0 to 3.3 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Cutter Gauthier scored at 1:52 of overtime, moving ANA’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Lukas Dostal saved 1.2 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ANA–CAR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 9:35 |  ANA | Jansen Harkins from Nikita Nesterenko, Brian Dumoulin | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P3 1:18 | ANA | Cutter Gauthier from Mason McTavish, Jackson LaCombe | 2–0 | 73% → 90% |
| P3 7:48 | CAR | Andrei SvechnikovPP from Sebastian Aho, Martin Necas | 2–1 | 6% → 22% |
| P3 19:04 | CAR | Seth JarvisPP from Martin Necas, Brent Burns | 2–2 | 6% → 50% |
| OT 1:52 | ANA | Cutter Gauthier from Jackson LaCombe, Frank Vatrano | 3–2 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cutter Gauthier L | 12:29 | 2 | +1.62 | −0.07 | +1.52 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.20 | −0.02 | |
| Jansen Harkins C | 11:06 | 1 | +0.55 | −0.05 | +0.62 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Radko Gudas D | 22:20 | +0.07 | −0.08 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Jackson LaCombe D | 23:03 | 2 | −0.04 | +0.10 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nikita Nesterenko C | 10:05 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Olen Zellweger D | 16:32 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brian Dumoulin D | 19:53 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Isac Lundeström C | 13:14 | −0.11 | −0.13 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.10 | ||
| Alex Killorn L | 19:47 | −0.12 | +0.09 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Leo Carlsson C | 19:10 | −0.13 | +0.14 | −0.18 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Pavel Mintyukov D | 16:39 | −0.19 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Colangelo R | 14:26 | −0.21 | +0.03 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Strome C | 19:26 | −0.25 | −0.20 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Frank Vatrano R | 19:43 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Robby Fabbri C | 17:12 | −0.30 | −0.24 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Brett Leason R | 12:46 | −0.36 | −0.08 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jacob Trouba D | 20:28 | −0.42 | −0.24 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason McTavish C | 13:20 | 1 | −0.42 | −0.09 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.20 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Lukas Dostal G | 61:52 | +1.19 |
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seth Jarvis R | 22:02 | 1 | +0.91 | +0.16 | +0.55 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.01 | |
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 16:58 | 1 | +0.76 | +0.17 | +0.56 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jalen Chatfield D | 20:57 | +0.11 | +0.16 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sebastian Aho C | 23:09 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.27 | −0.27 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.07 | |
| Sean Walker D | 15:46 | +0.05 | +0.08 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Staal C | 15:26 | +0.05 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jaccob Slavin D | 20:42 | +0.03 | +0.08 | −0.08 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Necas C | 20:49 | 2 | +0.02 | +0.12 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Roslovic C | 17:24 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 20:36 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Juha Jaaska L | 6:58 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jackson Blake R | 10:41 | −0.12 | −0.05 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eric Robinson L | 12:56 | −0.12 | +0.14 | −0.23 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Dmitry Orlov D | 21:22 | −0.14 | +0.21 | −0.35 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 13:56 | −0.15 | +0.08 | −0.24 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Brent Burns D | 20:00 | 1 | −0.19 | +0.06 | −0.28 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Martinook L | 14:06 | −0.19 | +0.12 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Drury C | 9:08 | −0.28 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Pyotr Kochetkov G | 60:32 | −0.95 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.