NYR beat VGK 2–1. Expected goals were close to even (NYR 2.7, VGK 2.8), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Adam Edstrom scored at 5:57 of the third, moving NYR’s win probability from 48% to 76%. Igor Shesterkin saved 2.1 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYR–VGK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 6:16 | VGK | Mark StonePP from Jack Eichel, Tomas Hertl | 0–1 | 54% → 73% |
| P2 9:54 | NYR | Vincent TrocheckPP from Mika Zibanejad, Artemi Panarin | 1–1 | 27% → 47% |
| P3 5:57 | NYR | Adam Edstrom from Jonny Brodzinski, Matt Rempe | 2–1 | 48% → 76% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Edstrom C | 6:36 | 1 | +0.74 | −0.04 | +0.78 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vincent Trocheck C | 21:34 | 1 | +0.54 | +0.20 | +0.54 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | −0.01 | |
| K'Andre Miller D | 21:09 | +0.28 | +0.12 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexis Lafrenière L | 17:42 | +0.09 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Will Cuylle L | 18:05 | +0.09 | +0.11 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Braden Schneider D | 18:02 | +0.08 | +0.09 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Will Borgen D | 20:34 | +0.06 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Fox D | 23:07 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jimmy Vesey L | 14:30 | +0.02 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Rempe C | 6:32 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Artemi Panarin L | 17:53 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.07 | −0.18 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Lindgren D | 21:15 | −0.14 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Urho Vaakanainen D | 14:35 | −0.16 | +0.09 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Mika Zibanejad C | 18:51 | 1 | −0.24 | +0.03 | −0.17 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.12 | |
| Sam Carrick C | 18:26 | −0.31 | +0.04 | −0.30 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Jonny Brodzinski C | 7:11 | 1 | −0.33 | −0.06 | −0.27 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Arthur Kaliyev R | 12:08 | −0.42 | +0.04 | −0.45 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Reilly Smith R | 17:42 | −0.93 | −0.11 | −0.63 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Igor Shesterkin G | 60:00 | +2.08 |
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Stone R | 22:43 | 1 | +0.75 | −0.09 | +0.56 | +0.06 | +0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Eichel C | 24:05 | 1 | +0.15 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.13 | |
| Zach Whitecloud D | 14:13 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Holtz R | 8:21 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Nicolas Hague D | 15:06 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Hertl C | 17:02 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.12 | −0.43 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.10 | |
| William Karlsson C | 17:11 | −0.04 | −0.08 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.20 | −0.04 | ||
| Shea Theodore D | 25:50 | −0.10 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden McNabb D | 20:42 | −0.11 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 18:47 | −0.11 | +0.03 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tanner Pearson L | 8:03 | −0.15 | +0.02 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Pietrangelo D | 20:29 | −0.19 | −0.02 | −0.20 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Olofsson R | 17:38 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Howden C | 14:44 | −0.21 | −0.04 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Schwindt C | 8:23 | −0.24 | +0.02 | −0.25 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Keegan Kolesar R | 12:45 | −0.33 | +0.01 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.01 | ||
| Pavel Dorofeyev L | 16:11 | −0.43 | −0.10 | −0.34 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Barbashev L | 18:24 | −0.46 | −0.09 | −0.37 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Samsonov G | 57:59 | +0.65 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.