CBJ beat SEA 6–2. CBJ lost the expected-goals battle 1.7 to 2.8 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Luca Del Bel Belluz scored at 3:29 of the second, moving CBJ’s win probability from 53% to 72%. Philipp Grubauer allowed 3.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SEA–CBJ | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 11:58 | CBJ | Sean Kuraly from Ivan Provorov, Mathieu Olivier | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 12:08 |  SEA | Eeli Tolvanen from Shane Wright, Jared McCann | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P2 3:29 | CBJ | Luca Del Bel Belluz from James van Riemsdyk, Damon Severson | 1–2 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 10:53 | CBJ | Zach Werenski from Adam Fantilli, Dmitri Voronkov | 1–3 | 74% → 89% |
| P2 12:27 | CBJ | Denton Mateychuk from James van Riemsdyk, Luca Del Bel Belluz | 1–4 | 89% → 97% |
| P2 15:45 | CBJ | Kent Johnson from Zach Werenski, Dante Fabbro | 1–5 | 98% → 100% |
| P3 8:44 | SEA | Eeli Tolvanen from Chandler Stephenson, Brandon Montour | 2–5 | 0% → 0% |
| P3 19:31 | CBJ | Kirill MarchenkoEN from Denton Mateychuk | 2–6 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SEA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eeli Tolvanen R | 15:40 | 2 | +1.61 | −0.05 | +1.67 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jaden Schwartz C | 19:54 | +0.09 | +0.08 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 14:25 | +0.03 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mitchell Stephens C | 9:11 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ryker Evans D | 19:12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matty Beniers C | 20:17 | −0.02 | +0.09 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 16:28 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joshua Mahura D | 13:53 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Larsson D | 18:29 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Tanev L | 12:21 | −0.11 | +0.05 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shane Wright C | 15:31 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vince Dunn D | 25:40 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.13 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chandler Stephenson C | 18:28 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.23 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Tye Kartye L | 8:52 | −0.19 | −0.05 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Montour D | 24:16 | 1 | −0.19 | +0.04 | −0.42 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Kaapo Kakko R | 18:00 | −0.19 | +0.06 | −0.23 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Andre Burakovsky L | 13:44 | −0.29 | −0.03 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared McCann L | 16:57 | 1 | −0.52 | −0.08 | −0.47 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Daccord G | 20:57 | +0.28 |
| Philipp Grubauer G | 35:45 | −3.27 |
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kent Johnson C | 12:39 | 1 | +0.96 | +0.06 | +0.90 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Denton Mateychuk D | 19:14 | 1 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.05 | +0.73 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Sean Kuraly C | 16:27 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.04 | +0.80 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Luca Del Bel Belluz C | 11:16 | 1 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.05 | +0.71 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Zach Werenski D | 25:34 | 1 | 1 | +0.61 | −0.10 | +0.69 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Mathieu Olivier R | 16:16 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.03 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| James van Riemsdyk L | 11:18 | 2 | +0.07 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Christiansen D | 13:26 | +0.07 | +0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Provorov D | 22:08 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Labanc R | 10:52 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kirill Marchenko R | 17:15 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Zachary Aston-Reese C | 16:01 | −0.15 | +0.02 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Fantilli C | 18:41 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.09 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Damon Severson D | 14:35 | 1 | −0.20 | +0.06 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Owen Sillinger C | 13:09 | −0.21 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | −0.01 | ||
| Mikael Pyyhtia L | 13:32 | −0.26 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Dante Fabbro D | 23:45 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Dmitri Voronkov L | 17:52 | 1 | −0.37 | −0.06 | −0.33 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Elvis Merzlikins G | 60:00 | +0.82 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.