NYR beat NJD 3–2 in overtime. NYR lost the expected-goals battle 3.2 to 3.6 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Sam Carrick scored at 2:48 of overtime, moving NYR’s win probability from 52% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NJD–NYR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 12:05 |  NYR | Adam FoxPP from Vincent Trocheck | 0–1 | 54% → 70% |
| P2 4:03 | NJD | Jack Hughes from Brett Pesce, Ondrej Palat | 1–1 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 8:28 | NJD | Jesper Bratt from Jack Hughes, Dougie Hamilton | 2–1 | 47% → 68% |
| P2 17:13 | NYR | Artemi PanarinPP from Mika Zibanejad, Adam Fox | 2–2 | 30% → 53% |
| OT 2:48 | NYR | Sam Carrick from Reilly Smith | 2–3 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Hughes C | 25:06 | 1 | 1 | +0.56 | +0.18 | +0.29 | +0.16 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.05 |
| Jesper Bratt L | 21:41 | 1 | +0.50 | +0.15 | +0.20 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Dougie Hamilton D | 18:18 | 1 | +0.32 | +0.42 | −0.15 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonas Siegenthaler D | 18:42 | +0.15 | +0.18 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ondrej Palat L | 14:40 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.02 | −0.04 | +0.11 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brenden Dillon D | 12:55 | −0.02 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Curtis Lazar C | 6:46 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Stefan Noesen R | 19:36 | −0.07 | +0.07 | −0.06 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Johnathan Kovacevic D | 19:39 | −0.12 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Dowling C | 13:47 | −0.13 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Timo Meier R | 21:11 | −0.14 | −0.36 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.40 | +0.00 | ||
| Dawson Mercer C | 18:20 | −0.16 | +0.22 | −0.30 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Hughes D | 24:34 | −0.18 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Paul Cotter C | 16:38 | −0.18 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Brett Pesce D | 21:28 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.41 | +0.00 | +0.20 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nathan Bastian R | 6:36 | −0.24 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Nico Hischier C | 21:35 | −0.29 | +0.16 | −0.09 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.20 | −0.06 | ||
| Kurtis MacDermid L | 3:45 | −0.31 | +0.01 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Markstrom G | 62:48 | +0.72 |
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Carrick C | 15:01 | 1 | +0.35 | +0.08 | +0.29 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Artemi Panarin L | 20:24 | 1 | +0.23 | −0.06 | +0.23 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Reilly Smith R | 19:54 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.10 | −0.20 | +0.31 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Will Borgen D | 19:17 | +0.11 | +0.27 | −0.02 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Fox D | 22:42 | 1 | 1 | +0.04 | −0.05 | +0.27 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Ryan Lindgren D | 21:00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Arthur Kaliyev R | 8:31 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vincent Trocheck C | 23:57 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.15 | −0.38 | +0.20 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.10 | |
| Jonny Brodzinski C | 10:04 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Brett Berard L | 7:39 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Adam Edstrom C | 9:01 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| K'Andre Miller D | 24:24 | −0.09 | +0.19 | −0.02 | −0.24 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Rempe C | 7:47 | −0.11 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Urho Vaakanainen D | 14:44 | −0.15 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Will Cuylle L | 17:42 | −0.21 | +0.06 | −0.17 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Braden Schneider D | 18:28 | −0.26 | −0.24 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mika Zibanejad C | 20:58 | 1 | −0.29 | +0.03 | −0.22 | +0.06 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.02 | |
| Alexis Lafrenière L | 18:51 | −0.43 | +0.04 | −0.22 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Igor Shesterkin G | 62:48 | +0.46 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.