CGY beat LAK 5–1. CGY lost the expected-goals battle 2.3 to 3.2 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Nazem Kadri scored at 2:15 of the second, moving CGY’s win probability from 47% to 66%. David Rittich allowed 2.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CGY–LAK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 2:15 | CGY | Nazem Kadri from Adam Klapka, Brayden Pachal | 1–0 | 47% → 66% |
| P3 6:05 | CGY | Sam Morton from Ryan Lomberg, Dryden Hunt | 2–0 | 76% → 93% |
| P3 7:28 | CGY | Nazem Kadri from Dryden Hunt, Yegor Sharangovich | 3–0 | 94% → 99% |
| P3 8:24 | CGY | Zayne Parekh from Mikael Backlund | 4–0 | 99% → 100% |
| P3 11:35 | CGY | Mikael Backlund from Matt Coronato | 5–0 | 100% → 100% |
| P3 13:49 | LAK | Taylor WardPP from Jordan Spence, Brandt Clarke | 5–1 | 0% → 0% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nazem Kadri C | 16:32 | 2 | +1.41 | −0.06 | +1.47 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Sam Morton C | 12:25 | 1 | +0.74 | −0.02 | +0.75 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Zayne Parekh D | 20:31 | 1 | +0.55 | −0.10 | +0.67 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikael Backlund C | 18:02 | 1 | 1 | +0.54 | −0.08 | +0.62 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Brayden Pachal D | 15:29 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.16 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Lomberg L | 13:19 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Coronato R | 14:31 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.01 | |
| Dryden Hunt L | 14:30 | 2 | −0.08 | +0.05 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Morgan Frost C | 14:34 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Hunter Brzustewicz D | 18:23 | −0.11 | +0.12 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 15:21 | 1 | −0.13 | +0.03 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Daniil Miromanov D | 20:02 | −0.15 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Bahl D | 19:30 | −0.15 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Klapka R | 10:39 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Blake Coleman L | 16:47 | −0.16 | −0.07 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 22:28 | −0.16 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Aydar Suniev L | 14:48 | −0.34 | −0.12 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Farabee L | 17:05 | −0.51 | −0.01 | −0.29 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dan Vladar G | 60:00 | +2.48 |
LAK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Ward R | 14:52 | 1 | +0.25 | +0.09 | +0.16 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Mikey Anderson D | 20:18 | +0.25 | +0.07 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Malott L | 16:04 | +0.22 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Anze Kopitar C | 16:22 | +0.19 | +0.11 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Joel Edmundson D | 18:37 | +0.05 | +0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Gavrikov D | 18:34 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Spence D | 17:11 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.04 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Akil Thomas C | 10:28 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandt Clarke D | 18:58 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.13 | −0.21 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andrei Kuzmenko L | 16:48 | −0.07 | +0.08 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Warren Foegele L | 14:30 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Drew Doughty D | 22:32 | −0.09 | +0.09 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Lewis C | 13:14 | −0.12 | +0.05 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Turcotte C | 14:21 | −0.13 | +0.08 | −0.26 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Samuel Helenius C | 12:12 | −0.23 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.20 | −0.06 | ||
| Alex Laferriere R | 15:30 | −0.40 | −0.00 | −0.38 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Kevin Fiala L | 16:26 | −0.41 | +0.10 | −0.70 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.20 | −0.01 | ||
| Quinton Byfield R | 19:27 | −0.53 | +0.02 | −0.30 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.20 | −0.07 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| David Rittich G | 59:36 | −2.53 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.