DET beat OTT 3–2 in overtime. DET also won the expected-goals battle 2.9 to 2.5: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Patrick Kane scored on the power play at 2:21 of overtime, moving DET’s win probability from 54% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | OTT–DET | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:30 | DET | Dylan LarkinPP from Alex DeBrincat, Lucas Raymond | 0–1 | 54% → 70% |
| P2 12:25 |  OTT | Thomas Chabot from Nick Jensen, Nick Cousins | 1–1 | 26% → 47% |
| P2 19:05 | OTT | Brady TkachukPP from Jake Sanderson, Tim Stützle | 2–1 | 49% → 72% |
| P3 5:00 | DET | Joe Veleno from Simon Edvinsson, Tyler Motte | 2–2 | 24% → 52% |
| OT 2:21 | DET | Patrick KanePP from Dylan Larkin | 2–3 | 54% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Chabot D | 23:56 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.02 | +0.75 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brady Tkachuk L | 17:17 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.08 | +0.54 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.40 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Cousins C | 17:13 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Artem Zub D | 21:50 | +0.14 | +0.22 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Claude Giroux R | 17:57 | −0.03 | +0.12 | −0.18 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Adam Gaudette R | 10:31 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Norris C | 20:02 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.34 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.06 | ||
| Nick Jensen D | 21:39 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Gregor L | 10:47 | −0.16 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jan Jenik C | 7:32 | −0.17 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikolas Matinpalo D | 14:13 | −0.20 | −0.24 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shane Pinto C | 18:25 | −0.22 | +0.11 | −0.26 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Tyler Kleven D | 15:57 | −0.22 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ridly Greig C | 17:07 | −0.23 | +0.06 | −0.27 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Drake Batherson R | 19:34 | −0.25 | −0.11 | −0.14 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Zack Ostapchuk C | 7:21 | −0.29 | −0.15 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jake Sanderson D | 22:33 | 1 | −0.33 | +0.03 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Tim Stützle C | 20:04 | 1 | −0.69 | −0.20 | −0.44 | +0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Anton Forsberg G | 62:03 | +0.41 |
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Veleno C | 12:15 | 1 | +0.75 | +0.06 | +0.70 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Dylan Larkin C | 18:52 | 1 | 1 | +0.67 | +0.23 | +0.40 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 |
| Patrick Kane R | 19:13 | 1 | +0.59 | +0.33 | +0.22 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Moritz Seider D | 25:43 | +0.31 | +0.26 | −0.16 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Chiarot D | 21:05 | +0.14 | +0.16 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Rasmussen C | 9:36 | +0.03 | +0.09 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex DeBrincat R | 17:17 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lucas Raymond L | 18:12 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Motte C | 10:09 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.10 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Albert Johansson D | 16:36 | −0.08 | −0.22 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Copp C | 17:19 | −0.10 | +0.07 | −0.21 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Jonatan Berggren R | 15:46 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Gustafsson D | 19:05 | −0.12 | +0.21 | −0.33 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 14:06 | −0.14 | −0.04 | −0.12 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Holl D | 18:26 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| J.T. Compher L | 17:26 | −0.24 | −0.15 | −0.15 | −0.03 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Simon Edvinsson D | 18:15 | 1 | −0.32 | −0.19 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marco Kasper C | 15:00 | −0.33 | −0.14 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Lyon G | 20:00 | +0.86 |
| Cam Talbot G | 42:21 | −0.04 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.