COL beat FLA 3–1. Expected goals were close to even (FLA 3.3, COL 3.4), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Devon Toews scored at 8:54 of the third, moving COL’s win probability from 52% to 82%. Mackenzie Blackwood saved 2.4 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | FLA–COL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 15:57 |  FLA | Carter Verhaeghe from Anton Lundell, Jesper Boqvist | 1–0 | 47% → 65% |
| P2 18:18 |  COL | Devon Toews from Casey Mittelstadt | 1–1 | 28% → 53% |
| P3 8:54 | COL | Devon Toews from Ross Colton, Juuso Parssinen | 1–2 | 52% → 82% |
| P3 18:03 | COL | Mikko RantanenEN from Devon Toews, Nathan MacKinnon | 1–3 | 93% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carter Verhaeghe C | 20:25 | 1 | +0.50 | +0.12 | +0.60 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.20 | −0.01 | |
| Nate Schmidt D | 15:16 | +0.18 | +0.15 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Boqvist D | 18:34 | +0.16 | +0.20 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mackie Samoskevich R | 8:33 | +0.11 | +0.12 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eetu Luostarinen C | 14:30 | +0.11 | +0.13 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Uvis Balinskis D | 18:20 | +0.01 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tobias Bjornfot D | 15:29 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Nosek L | 8:12 | −0.03 | +0.13 | −0.33 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.20 | −0.02 | ||
| Jesper Boqvist C | 10:11 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| A.J. Greer L | 7:12 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Sam Bennett C | 16:55 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Anton Lundell C | 14:07 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.03 | |
| Evan Rodrigues C | 15:27 | −0.28 | −0.11 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitry Kulikov D | 21:58 | −0.30 | −0.30 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gustav Forsling D | 22:26 | −0.30 | −0.28 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Aleksander Barkov C | 22:14 | −0.38 | −0.26 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Sam Reinhart C | 23:29 | −0.96 | −0.22 | −0.72 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 19:49 | −1.19 | +0.03 | −1.23 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky G | 58:53 | +1.61 |
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devon Toews D | 26:19 | 2 | 1 | +1.68 | −0.05 | +1.68 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Samuel Girard D | 24:53 | +0.18 | +0.16 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Parker Kelly C | 16:26 | +0.08 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 23:25 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.14 | −0.31 | +0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Jere Innala L | 5:21 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikko Rantanen R | 24:04 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.14 | −0.29 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Keaton Middleton D | 7:02 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tye Felhaber L | 5:05 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Malinski D | 9:24 | −0.12 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Manson D | 19:04 | −0.14 | −0.10 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan O'Connor R | 14:29 | −0.14 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Juuso Parssinen C | 8:26 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.02 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Cale Makar D | 26:46 | −0.19 | +0.13 | −0.57 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Drouin L | 21:50 | −0.24 | +0.22 | −0.45 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Kiviranta L | 14:52 | −0.26 | −0.05 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 18:02 | −0.32 | −0.07 | −0.28 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ross Colton C | 12:28 | 1 | −0.38 | −0.16 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 16:04 | 1 | −0.59 | +0.03 | −0.36 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.20 | −0.07 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Blackwood G | 60:00 | +2.40 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.