VGK beat BUF 3–1. Expected goals were close to even (BUF 2.9, VGK 2.6), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Tanner Laczynski scored at 4:53 of the first, moving VGK’s win probability from 53% to 69%. Adin Hill saved 1.0 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–VGK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:53 | VGK | Tanner Laczynski from Brett Howden, Zach Whitecloud | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 12:23 | VGK | Mark Stone from Jack Eichel, Tanner Pearson | 0–2 | 70% → 84% |
| P3 7:44 | VGK | Jack Eichel from Tanner Pearson, Noah Hanifin | 0–3 | 95% → 99% |
| P3 17:42 |  BUF | Jason ZuckerPP from Rasmus Dahlin, JJ Peterka | 1–3 | 0% → 0% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Zucker L | 21:44 | 1 | +0.46 | −0.08 | +0.53 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Bowen Byram D | 24:16 | +0.12 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Dennis Gilbert D | 8:38 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Clifton D | 13:01 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan McLeod C | 11:17 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Peyton Krebs C | 12:55 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 19:55 | −0.03 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jiri Kulich C | 14:37 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Beck Malenstyn L | 10:16 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jack Quinn R | 15:04 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Owen Power D | 23:44 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Benson L | 12:24 | −0.14 | +0.02 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 25:28 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.32 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Nicolas Aube-Kubel R | 10:26 | −0.18 | −0.02 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| JJ Peterka R | 17:31 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Tuch R | 16:56 | −0.29 | −0.03 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Cozens C | 19:25 | −0.33 | +0.00 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.07 | ||
| Tage Thompson C | 20:42 | −0.48 | −0.00 | −0.46 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| James Reimer G | 57:41 | +0.15 |
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanner Laczynski C | 11:08 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.07 | +0.71 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Stone R | 18:35 | 1 | +0.76 | −0.04 | +0.72 | +0.07 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jack Eichel C | 21:08 | 1 | 1 | +0.35 | +0.00 | +0.37 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.07 |
| Alexander Holtz R | 10:20 | +0.15 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden McNabb D | 20:15 | +0.06 | +0.07 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shea Theodore D | 18:16 | +0.00 | +0.05 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Whitecloud D | 13:39 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Hanifin D | 23:16 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.07 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cole Schwindt C | 8:24 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Nicolas Hague D | 16:03 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Pietrangelo D | 25:37 | −0.06 | +0.05 | −0.16 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonas Rondbjerg R | 7:45 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Karlsson C | 20:24 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.37 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.04 | ||
| Tomas Hertl C | 20:08 | −0.14 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.20 | −0.01 | ||
| Tanner Pearson L | 15:43 | 2 | −0.15 | −0.03 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Keegan Kolesar R | 13:06 | −0.23 | +0.07 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Howden C | 13:49 | 1 | −0.37 | +0.05 | −0.38 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Pavel Dorofeyev L | 18:11 | −0.60 | +0.07 | −0.66 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Adin Hill G | 60:00 | +1.04 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.