DAL beat UTA 3–2 in overtime. DAL lost the expected-goals battle 3.3 to 4.0 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Thomas Harley scored at 3:01 of overtime, moving DAL’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Jake Oettinger saved 1.4 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | UTA–DAL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 0:16 |  DAL | Jamie Benn from Wyatt Johnston, Matt Duchene | 0–1 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 1:30 |  UTA | Matias Maccelli from Lawson Crouse, Nick Bjugstad | 1–1 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 10:30 | DAL | Oskar Bäck from Arttu Hyry, Nils Lundkvist | 1–2 | 53% → 74% |
| P2 13:37 | UTA | Matias Maccelli from Alexander Kerfoot, Ian Cole | 2–2 | 25% → 47% |
| OT 3:01 | DAL | Thomas Harley from Matt Duchene, Wyatt Johnston | 2–3 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
UTA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matias Maccelli L | 17:58 | 2 | +1.49 | +0.05 | +1.43 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 13:45 | 1 | +0.36 | +0.34 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Kevin Stenlund C | 14:05 | +0.33 | +0.38 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Michael Kesselring D | 19:21 | +0.13 | +0.17 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Juuso Välimäki D | 15:00 | +0.04 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Kolyachonok D | 14:32 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 27:28 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack McBain C | 14:37 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Olli Maatta D | 25:18 | −0.12 | +0.18 | −0.31 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Liam O'Brien C | 10:25 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Guenther R | 15:21 | −0.19 | +0.03 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 19:38 | 1 | −0.24 | +0.04 | −0.29 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Schmaltz C | 20:01 | −0.24 | −0.18 | −0.15 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Clayton Keller R | 19:15 | −0.25 | −0.02 | −0.23 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Barrett Hayton C | 16:48 | −0.30 | −0.16 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Lawson Crouse L | 15:12 | 1 | −0.37 | −0.16 | −0.18 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Bjugstad C | 13:20 | 1 | −0.41 | +0.12 | −0.49 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Logan Cooley C | 17:22 | −0.53 | −0.05 | −0.52 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka G | 62:38 | +0.95 |
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oskar Bäck C | 14:02 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.04 | +0.76 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Thomas Harley D | 21:43 | 1 | +0.50 | −0.02 | +0.55 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Esa Lindell D | 22:15 | +0.23 | +0.16 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Benn L | 18:19 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.01 | +0.11 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Nils Lundkvist D | 15:10 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mavrik Bourque C | 9:49 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Colin Blackwell C | 10:10 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Matt Duchene C | 20:41 | 2 | −0.06 | +0.14 | −0.27 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Arttu Hyry R | 7:31 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Miro Heiskanen D | 27:20 | −0.18 | −0.15 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ilya Lyubushkin D | 21:52 | −0.21 | −0.12 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathew Dumba D | 14:45 | −0.28 | −0.27 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Steel C | 16:26 | −0.29 | −0.01 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Wyatt Johnston C | 19:29 | 2 | −0.39 | +0.18 | −0.55 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Evgenii Dadonov L | 15:57 | −0.40 | −0.30 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Robertson L | 20:07 | −0.44 | −0.17 | −0.26 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Stankoven C | 15:21 | −0.55 | −0.08 | −0.44 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Roope Hintz C | 16:06 | −0.60 | −0.20 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.20 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Oettinger G | 63:01 | +1.41 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.