CBJ beat STL 6–4. CBJ lost the expected-goals battle 3.0 to 3.4 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Dmitri Voronkov scored at 19:01 of the first, moving CBJ’s win probability from 53% to 71%. Joel Hofer allowed 1.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | STL–CBJ | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 19:01 | CBJ | Dmitri Voronkov from Zach Werenski, Ivan Provorov | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 2:15 | CBJ | Kirill MarchenkoPP from Sean Monahan, Kent Johnson | 0–2 | 73% → 86% |
| P3 3:44 | CBJ | Mikael PyyhtiaSH from Ivan Provorov, Sean Monahan | 0–3 | 93% → 99% |
| P3 4:54 |  STL | Jordan KyrouPP from Jake Neighbours, Dylan Holloway | 1–3 | 1% → 6% |
| P3 5:25 | CBJ | Adam Fantilli from Zach Werenski, Dante Fabbro | 1–4 | 94% → 99% |
| P3 6:55 | STL | Cam Fowler from Dylan Holloway, Jordan Kyrou | 2–4 | 1% → 5% |
| P3 7:24 | CBJ | Dmitri Voronkov from Sean Monahan, Jordan Harris | 2–5 | 95% → 99% |
| P3 12:54 | STL | Colton Parayko from Pavel Buchnevich, Alexandre Texier | 3–5 | 0% → 2% |
| P3 16:16 | STL | Brayden SchennPP from Cam Fowler, Jordan Kyrou | 4–5 | 1% → 10% |
| P3 18:59 | CBJ | Mathieu OlivierEN from Ivan Provorov, Cole Sillinger | 4–6 | 95% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brayden Schenn C | 18:32 | 1 | +0.60 | +0.01 | +0.58 | −0.08 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Philip Broberg D | 22:27 | +0.30 | +0.08 | −0.13 | −0.06 | +0.02 | +0.40 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Parayko D | 25:18 | 1 | +0.25 | −0.16 | +0.45 | −0.06 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cam Fowler D | 22:53 | 1 | 1 | +0.15 | −0.04 | +0.30 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jordan Kyrou R | 19:28 | 1 | 2 | +0.07 | −0.03 | +0.07 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Alexandre Texier L | 12:22 | 1 | +0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexey Toropchenko R | 11:05 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 18:26 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.10 | −0.08 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Jake Neighbours L | 14:59 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Holloway L | 18:33 | 2 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.21 | +0.19 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Nathan Walker L | 12:27 | −0.05 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Scott Perunovich D | 15:36 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Suter D | 20:39 | −0.10 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathieu Joseph R | 10:46 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Robert Thomas C | 16:47 | −0.15 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Oskar Sundqvist C | 14:54 | −0.18 | −0.15 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Tyler Tucker D | 8:43 | −0.23 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Saad L | 15:23 | −0.51 | −0.07 | −0.19 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joel Hofer G | 58:27 | −1.65 |
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikael Pyyhtia L | 8:52 | 1 | +0.82 | +0.06 | +0.78 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dmitri Voronkov L | 21:40 | 2 | +0.80 | +0.11 | +0.70 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Sean Monahan C | 23:42 | 3 | +0.41 | +0.15 | −0.03 | +0.32 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Kirill Marchenko R | 21:28 | 1 | +0.37 | +0.11 | +0.19 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Zach Werenski D | 29:01 | 2 | +0.27 | +0.16 | −0.22 | +0.32 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Fantilli C | 12:26 | 1 | +0.25 | −0.04 | +0.36 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Ivan Provorov D | 23:39 | 3 | +0.10 | +0.11 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Harris D | 4:32 | 1 | +0.06 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Denton Mateychuk D | 16:55 | +0.05 | +0.10 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dante Fabbro D | 23:11 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Johnson D | 11:16 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Sillinger C | 18:46 | 1 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.20 | −0.01 | |
| Kent Johnson C | 17:46 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Sean Kuraly C | 10:35 | −0.08 | +0.04 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Christiansen D | 9:14 | −0.08 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathieu Olivier R | 16:51 | 1 | −0.26 | +0.03 | −0.22 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| James van Riemsdyk L | 13:31 | −0.30 | −0.05 | −0.21 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary Aston-Reese C | 13:26 | −0.33 | −0.01 | −0.10 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Elvis Merzlikins G | 59:48 | −0.35 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.