COL beat BUF 6–5 in overtime. COL also won the expected-goals battle 3.6 to 1.9: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Devon Toews scored at 0:48 of overtime, moving COL’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen allowed 3.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–COL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 13:17 | BUF | Jason ZuckerPP from Jack Quinn, Tage Thompson | 1–0 | 48% → 64% |
| P1 17:10 | BUF | Bowen Byram from Jason Zucker, Dylan Cozens | 2–0 | 65% → 79% |
| P2 11:08 | BUF | Jason ZuckerPP from Tage Thompson, Rasmus Dahlin | 3–0 | 85% → 95% |
| P2 14:58 | COL | Cale Makar from Jonathan Drouin, Devon Toews | 3–1 | 4% → 13% |
| P3 1:05 | COL | Ross Colton from Samuel Girard | 3–2 | 10% → 27% |
| P3 1:27 | BUF | Zach Benson from Peyton Krebs, JJ Peterka | 4–2 | 73% → 91% |
| P3 4:17 | COL | Mikko RantanenPP from Nathan MacKinnon, Casey Mittelstadt | 4–3 | 11% → 26% |
| P3 16:09 | BUF | Jason Zucker from Tage Thompson | 5–3 | 89% → 99% |
| P3 17:34 | COL | Cale MakarPP from Nathan MacKinnon, Devon Toews | 5–4 | 1% → 8% |
| P3 19:52 | COL | Jonathan DrouinPP from Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen | 5–5 | 4% → 51% |
| OT 0:48 | COL | Devon Toews unassisted | 5–6 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Zucker L | 18:14 | 3 | 1 | +2.36 | +0.18 | +1.98 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 |
| Bowen Byram D | 21:15 | 1 | +0.73 | −0.04 | +0.79 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Benson L | 9:34 | 1 | +0.66 | −0.01 | +0.87 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Jacob Bryson D | 13:20 | +0.06 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Quinn R | 15:22 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Peyton Krebs C | 8:42 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Connor Clifton D | 12:59 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Lafferty C | 10:11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| JJ Peterka R | 11:53 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.10 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 24:27 | −0.06 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Beck Malenstyn L | 15:59 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jiri Kulich C | 16:36 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Alex Tuch R | 19:24 | −0.11 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Owen Power D | 22:06 | −0.11 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 23:17 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Cozens C | 18:52 | 1 | −0.49 | −0.34 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.08 | |
| Tage Thompson C | 19:43 | 3 | −0.57 | −0.13 | −0.42 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan McLeod C | 15:17 | −0.67 | −0.08 | −0.54 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen G | 60:48 | −3.04 |
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cale Makar D | 28:17 | 2 | +1.87 | +0.18 | +1.45 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Jonathan Drouin L | 22:46 | 1 | 1 | +1.16 | +0.41 | +0.74 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Mikko Rantanen R | 25:34 | 1 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.04 | +0.63 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Ross Colton C | 14:24 | 1 | +0.55 | +0.09 | +0.69 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Devon Toews D | 27:14 | 1 | 2 | +0.53 | +0.11 | +0.38 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Samuel Girard D | 20:32 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.10 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 26:16 | 3 | +0.06 | +0.33 | −0.36 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Juuso Parssinen C | 7:01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 22:01 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Logan O'Connor R | 10:47 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.20 | −0.01 | ||
| Jere Innala L | 7:06 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Sam Malinski D | 13:42 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Keaton Middleton D | 9:41 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oskar Olausson R | 7:57 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Parker Kelly C | 12:13 | −0.14 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Joel Kiviranta L | 10:39 | −0.15 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 17:29 | 1 | −0.18 | +0.09 | −0.22 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Josh Manson D | 17:59 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Blackwood G | 16:12 | −0.62 |
| Scott Wedgewood G | 41:27 | −2.15 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.