ANA beat WPG 4–3 in overtime. ANA lost the expected-goals battle 1.6 to 3.6 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Troy Terry scored at 3:34 of overtime, moving ANA’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Connor Hellebuyck allowed 2.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ANA–WPG | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:33 |  WPG | Mark Scheifele from Kyle Connor, Gabriel Vilardi | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 17:17 | WPG | Adam Lowry from Alex Iafallo, Josh Morrissey | 0–2 | 71% → 85% |
| P1 18:58 | ANA | Leo Carlsson from Radko Gudas, Alex Killorn | 1–2 | 15% → 29% |
| P2 6:52 | ANA | Troy Terry from Ryan Strome, Brian Dumoulin | 2–2 | 27% → 47% |
| P3 17:16 | WPG | Alex Iafallo from Nino Niederreiter, Josh Morrissey | 2–3 | 51% → 92% |
| P3 18:10 | ANA | Radko GudasPP from Frank Vatrano, Troy Terry | 3–3 | 6% → 50% |
| OT 3:34 | ANA | Troy Terry from John Gibson | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Terry R | 17:07 | 2 | 1 | +1.60 | −0.10 | +1.71 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Leo Carlsson C | 14:42 | 1 | +0.76 | −0.01 | +0.80 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Radko Gudas D | 24:40 | 1 | 1 | +0.74 | −0.11 | +0.82 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Alex Killorn L | 15:39 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jansen Harkins C | 10:34 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jacob Trouba D | 23:38 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ross Johnston L | 10:03 | −0.04 | +0.04 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Leason R | 13:21 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Drew Helleson D | 14:56 | −0.13 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cutter Gauthier L | 15:47 | −0.14 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Mintyukov D | 13:50 | −0.15 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Isac Lundeström C | 13:38 | −0.16 | −0.06 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jackson LaCombe D | 24:55 | −0.24 | −0.12 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Frank Vatrano R | 16:25 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.18 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brian Dumoulin D | 21:48 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.26 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Robby Fabbri C | 20:17 | −0.47 | −0.26 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Ryan Strome C | 17:22 | 1 | −0.73 | −0.14 | −0.16 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.40 | −0.05 | |
| Mason McTavish C | 18:08 | −0.77 | −0.32 | −0.40 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| John Gibson G | 63:26 | +0.76 |
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Scheifele C | 22:38 | 1 | +1.03 | +0.10 | +0.48 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.40 | +0.03 | |
| Adam Lowry C | 16:05 | 1 | +0.88 | +0.19 | +0.66 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 | |
| Alex Iafallo L | 14:06 | 1 | 1 | +0.56 | +0.14 | +0.44 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Josh Morrissey D | 27:39 | 2 | +0.34 | +0.33 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan DeMelo D | 23:00 | +0.21 | +0.18 | −0.02 | +0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 16:05 | +0.14 | +0.14 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin Miller D | 13:39 | +0.08 | +0.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Stanley D | 20:23 | +0.07 | +0.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ville Heinola D | 13:39 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Kupari C | 6:57 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Barron C | 7:55 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Neal Pionk D | 21:42 | −0.02 | +0.14 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nino Niederreiter R | 16:14 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.18 | −0.33 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 19:41 | −0.15 | +0.22 | −0.37 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Cole Perfetti C | 19:16 | −0.18 | +0.14 | −0.27 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| David Gustafsson C | 8:56 | −0.20 | +0.03 | −0.27 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Kyle Connor L | 22:10 | 1 | −0.24 | +0.09 | −0.30 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Gabriel Vilardi C | 20:37 | 1 | −0.55 | +0.04 | −0.59 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Hellebuyck G | 63:34 | −2.50 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.