TOR beat NYI 2–1. TOR lost the expected-goals battle 2.8 to 3.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Bobby McMann scored on the power play at 17:01 of the third, moving TOR’s win probability from 51% to 91%. Joseph Woll saved 2.1 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TOR–NYI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 10:43 | TOR | Bobby McMann from Nicholas Robertson | 1–0 | 47% → 69% |
| P2 18:15 | NYI | Scott Mayfield from Mathew Barzal, Adam Pelech | 1–1 | 28% → 53% |
| P3 17:01 | TOR | Bobby McMannPP from Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Max Domi | 2–1 | 51% → 91% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby McMann C | 15:01 | 2 | +1.17 | +0.14 | +1.20 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.02 | |
| Philippe Myers D | 17:43 | +0.26 | +0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Tanev D | 19:28 | +0.17 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Benoit D | 15:34 | +0.06 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Dewar C | 8:24 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ryan Reaves R | 5:11 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Steven Lorentz C | 6:30 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jake McCabe D | 21:33 | −0.06 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mitch Marner R | 23:43 | −0.12 | −0.16 | −0.02 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 18:25 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.13 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nicholas Robertson L | 12:27 | 1 | −0.19 | +0.06 | −0.22 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John Tavares C | 18:57 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| David Kampf C | 18:50 | −0.22 | −0.11 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Morgan Rielly D | 23:34 | −0.25 | −0.17 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Knies L | 18:35 | −0.28 | +0.07 | −0.34 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Domi C | 14:26 | 1 | −0.29 | +0.06 | −0.22 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.01 | |
| William Nylander R | 19:16 | −0.32 | −0.06 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Max Pacioretty L | 16:23 | −0.70 | −0.13 | −0.56 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joseph Woll G | 60:00 | +2.10 |
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Mayfield D | 16:28 | 1 | +0.82 | +0.01 | +0.80 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brock Nelson C | 19:59 | +0.38 | +0.31 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.20 | −0.01 | ||
| Anthony Duclair L | 17:39 | +0.16 | +0.16 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Pulock D | 22:40 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Maxim Tsyplakov R | 15:20 | +0.02 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Hudson Fasching R | 9:13 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.21 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Anders Lee C | 20:15 | −0.01 | +0.20 | −0.16 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Isaiah George D | 8:07 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Palmieri C | 16:50 | −0.07 | +0.07 | −0.16 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre Engvall L | 8:09 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Kyle MacLean C | 6:03 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Noah Dobson D | 25:22 | −0.11 | +0.03 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Pelech D | 19:26 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.13 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 16:48 | −0.18 | −0.12 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Alexander Romanov D | 20:07 | −0.22 | −0.07 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Cizikas C | 12:09 | −0.24 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.01 | ||
| Mathew Barzal C | 22:03 | 1 | −0.36 | +0.23 | −0.55 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Bo Horvat C | 21:33 | −0.87 | +0.13 | −0.98 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Sorokin G | 58:07 | +0.73 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.