DET beat CBJ 5–4. DET also won the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 2.1: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Jonatan Berggren scored at 19:24 of the third, moving DET’s win probability from 48% to 96%. Cam Talbot allowed 2.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DET–CBJ | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:42 | CBJ | James van RiemsdykPP from Cole Sillinger, Ivan Provorov | 0–1 | 54% → 69% |
| P1 6:55 |  DET | Patrick Kane from Andrew Copp, Alex DeBrincat | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 14:39 | DET | Erik Gustafsson from Justin Holl | 2–1 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 17:09 | DET | Alex DeBrincatPP from Moritz Seider, Dylan Larkin | 3–1 | 66% → 79% |
| P2 11:09 | CBJ | Zach Werenski unassisted | 3–2 | 15% → 31% |
| P2 18:40 | CBJ | Sean Monahan from James van Riemsdyk, Zach Werenski | 3–3 | 28% → 53% |
| P3 4:54 | DET | Dylan LarkinPP from Alex DeBrincat, Patrick Kane | 4–3 | 49% → 76% |
| P3 17:19 | CBJ | James van Riemsdyk from Adam Fantilli, Zach Werenski | 4–4 | 9% → 52% |
| P3 19:24 | DET | Jonatan Berggren from Tyler Motte, Ben Chiarot | 5–4 | 48% → 96% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex DeBrincat R | 14:24 | 1 | 2 | +0.96 | +0.22 | +0.52 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.01 |
| Erik Gustafsson D | 14:16 | 1 | +0.79 | −0.10 | +0.89 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Larkin C | 20:01 | 1 | 1 | +0.65 | +0.08 | +0.21 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.40 | −0.04 |
| Patrick Kane R | 15:05 | 1 | 1 | +0.56 | +0.20 | +0.35 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jonatan Berggren R | 15:19 | 1 | +0.56 | −0.06 | +0.62 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lucas Raymond L | 17:26 | +0.32 | +0.11 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Chiarot D | 24:18 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Moritz Seider D | 25:49 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.16 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Simon Edvinsson D | 20:32 | +0.10 | +0.11 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Veleno C | 17:07 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Rasmussen C | 11:12 | −0.07 | +0.08 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Petry D | 17:17 | −0.08 | +0.04 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 14:59 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Holl D | 15:00 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| J.T. Compher L | 16:47 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Andrew Copp C | 13:42 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.10 | −0.25 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Marco Kasper C | 10:42 | −0.22 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Tyler Motte C | 12:34 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.01 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cam Talbot G | 59:35 | −2.03 |
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James van Riemsdyk L | 13:00 | 2 | 1 | +1.56 | +0.09 | +1.46 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Sean Monahan C | 20:29 | 1 | +0.66 | +0.09 | +0.50 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | |
| Zach Werenski D | 26:16 | 1 | 2 | +0.66 | +0.22 | +0.62 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Kent Johnson C | 17:39 | +0.05 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kirill Marchenko R | 24:14 | +0.05 | +0.07 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Denton Mateychuk D | 19:44 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dante Fabbro D | 19:48 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Fantilli C | 15:37 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.10 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Damon Severson D | 12:29 | −0.09 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Christiansen D | 3:05 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary Aston-Reese C | 15:42 | −0.12 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Pyyhtia L | 9:39 | −0.17 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathieu Olivier R | 15:56 | −0.17 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ivan Provorov D | 26:39 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Kuraly C | 8:53 | −0.19 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.06 | ||
| Jack Johnson D | 9:09 | −0.22 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Sillinger C | 17:45 | 1 | −0.45 | −0.23 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Dmitri Voronkov L | 21:27 | −0.85 | +0.12 | −0.37 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.59 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Elvis Merzlikins G | 59:26 | −1.81 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.