MIN beat WSH 4–3 in a shootout. MIN also won the expected-goals battle 3.4 to 2.9: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Marco Rossi scored at 11:19 of the third, moving MIN’s win probability from 16% to 48%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MIN–WSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 10:19 | WSH | Tom Wilson from Rasmus Sandin | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 11:24 |  MIN | Ryan Hartman from Zach Bogosian, Joel Eriksson Ek | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 19:07 | MIN | Yakov TreninSH unassisted | 2–1 | 46% → 65% |
| P2 15:08 | WSH | Alex OvechkinPP from Dylan Strome | 2–2 | 30% → 54% |
| P3 5:34 | WSH | Martin Fehérváry from Pierre-Luc Dubois | 2–3 | 52% → 80% |
| P3 11:19 | MIN | Marco Rossi from Ryan Hartman, Jonas Brodin | 3–3 | 16% → 48% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Hartman R | 17:01 | 1 | 1 | +0.71 | −0.01 | +0.74 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 |
| Yakov Trenin C | 12:58 | 1 | +0.70 | +0.16 | +0.53 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Marco Rossi C | 19:16 | 1 | +0.42 | +0.04 | +0.45 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 | |
| Matt Boldy L | 20:10 | +0.37 | +0.17 | −0.61 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.78 | ||
| Marcus Foligno L | 12:10 | +0.17 | +0.17 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Declan Chisholm D | 20:17 | +0.14 | +0.16 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Dermott D | 10:32 | +0.14 | +0.14 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Faber D | 31:29 | +0.09 | +0.09 | −0.23 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Johansson L | 18:30 | +0.03 | +0.10 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jon Merrill D | 13:03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Devin Shore C | 9:49 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Ben Jones C | 8:33 | −0.04 | +0.03 | −0.27 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jonas Brodin D | 27:15 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marat Khusnutdinov C | 10:54 | −0.20 | +0.06 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| Zach Bogosian D | 18:29 | 1 | −0.25 | +0.03 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mats Zuccarello C | 21:00 | −0.38 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.32 | ||
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 23:28 | 1 | −0.57 | −0.34 | −0.22 | +0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 | |
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 15:23 | −0.59 | +0.08 | −0.68 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Marc-Andre Fleury G | 64:39 | +0.50 |
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Fehérváry D | 16:58 | 1 | +0.99 | +0.13 | +0.87 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tom Wilson R | 21:53 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.29 | +0.62 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Aliaksei Protas L | 18:35 | +0.05 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| John Carlson D | 24:49 | +0.04 | +0.28 | −0.28 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lars Eller C | 10:20 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| Alex Ovechkin L | 20:10 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.17 | +0.46 | +0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.33 | |
| Ivan Miroshnichenko L | 8:58 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 10:33 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Sandin D | 21:49 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Duhaime R | 15:21 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Matt Roy D | 18:55 | −0.10 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Taylor Raddysh R | 12:05 | −0.21 | −0.17 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 18:49 | −0.22 | −0.20 | −0.05 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nic Dowd C | 16:01 | −0.36 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Jakob Chychrun D | 21:56 | −0.45 | −0.37 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Strome C | 17:05 | 1 | −0.48 | −0.13 | −0.27 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.05 | −0.32 | |
| Connor McMichael L | 16:08 | −0.56 | −0.27 | −0.31 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Pierre-Luc Dubois C | 20:50 | 1 | −0.68 | +0.09 | −0.48 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 | −0.39 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Charlie Lindgren G | 64:45 | +0.31 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.