ANA beat NJD 3–2. ANA lost the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 3.1 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Ryan Strome scored at 16:36 of the third, moving ANA’s win probability from 51% to 91%. Lukas Dostal saved 1.2 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NJD–ANA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 10:05 |  ANA | Troy Terry from Ryan Strome, Frank Vatrano | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P3 3:57 | ANA | Robby Fabbri from Cutter Gauthier, Brian Dumoulin | 0–2 | 79% → 94% |
| P3 5:31 |  NJD | Jonas Siegenthaler unassisted | 1–2 | 6% → 20% |
| P3 13:20 | NJD | Timo Meier from Dougie Hamilton, Stefan Noesen | 2–2 | 14% → 49% |
| P3 16:36 | ANA | Ryan Strome from Jackson LaCombe, Frank Vatrano | 2–3 | 51% → 91% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonas Siegenthaler D | 18:55 | 1 | +0.91 | −0.00 | +0.91 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Timo Meier R | 16:27 | 1 | +0.90 | +0.08 | +0.61 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Johnathan Kovacevic D | 16:44 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kurtis MacDermid L | 4:13 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ondrej Palat L | 14:48 | −0.04 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brenden Dillon D | 17:22 | −0.07 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Pesce D | 20:37 | −0.07 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Paul Cotter C | 17:15 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jesper Bratt L | 18:32 | −0.10 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Stefan Noesen R | 15:57 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.09 | −0.18 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Dougie Hamilton D | 18:52 | 1 | −0.18 | +0.08 | −0.27 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Curtis Lazar C | 9:54 | −0.19 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.03 | ||
| Nathan Bastian R | 9:26 | −0.25 | +0.04 | −0.28 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Haula L | 15:18 | −0.26 | −0.13 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Nico Hischier C | 17:56 | −0.31 | +0.16 | −0.50 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Luke Hughes D | 21:00 | −0.33 | −0.08 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dawson Mercer C | 17:38 | −0.40 | −0.03 | −0.35 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Hughes C | 21:51 | −0.63 | +0.01 | −0.71 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Markstrom G | 57:15 | −0.45 |
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Strome C | 19:05 | 1 | 1 | +1.17 | +0.08 | +0.90 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.20 | −0.01 |
| Robby Fabbri C | 16:43 | 1 | +0.58 | +0.01 | +0.57 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Troy Terry R | 20:54 | 1 | +0.42 | +0.16 | +0.46 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Killorn L | 14:37 | +0.17 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Radko Gudas D | 19:48 | +0.15 | +0.22 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ross Johnston L | 6:51 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jackson LaCombe D | 22:22 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.14 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pavel Mintyukov D | 15:16 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew Helleson D | 15:31 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jansen Harkins C | 9:28 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Leason R | 12:33 | −0.14 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jacob Trouba D | 22:12 | −0.16 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brian Dumoulin D | 19:04 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cutter Gauthier L | 14:45 | 1 | −0.21 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Leo Carlsson C | 15:08 | −0.23 | +0.03 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Frank Vatrano R | 20:46 | 2 | −0.25 | +0.15 | −0.35 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Isac Lundeström C | 12:18 | −0.32 | −0.03 | −0.26 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Mason McTavish C | 14:39 | −0.35 | −0.04 | −0.28 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Lukas Dostal G | 60:00 | +1.22 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.