DAL beat BUF 4–2. DAL also won the expected-goals battle 4.2 to 2.5: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Wyatt Johnston scored at 11:32 of the third, moving DAL’s win probability from 52% to 84%. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen saved 1.5 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–DAL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 9:49 |  DAL | Roope Hintz from Jason Robertson, Thomas Harley | 0–1 | 53% → 74% |
| P2 10:20 |  BUF | Jason Zucker from Tage Thompson, Bowen Byram | 1–1 | 26% → 47% |
| P3 2:35 | DAL | Jason Robertson unassisted | 1–2 | 52% → 78% |
| P3 4:57 | BUF | Beck Malenstyn from Sam Lafferty, Ryan McLeod | 2–2 | 21% → 48% |
| P3 11:32 | DAL | Wyatt Johnston from Thomas Harley | 2–3 | 52% → 84% |
| P3 18:23 | DAL | Esa LindellEN from Jason Robertson, Casey DeSmith | 2–4 | 94% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beck Malenstyn L | 11:14 | 1 | +0.80 | +0.05 | +0.75 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jason Zucker L | 17:04 | 1 | +0.39 | −0.23 | +0.67 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Ryan McLeod C | 12:14 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Peyton Krebs C | 15:26 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jacob Bryson D | 15:19 | −0.20 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Benson L | 14:54 | −0.23 | −0.07 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Quinn R | 15:09 | −0.26 | −0.26 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Clifton D | 14:31 | −0.28 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 21:10 | −0.28 | −0.31 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Owen Power D | 21:28 | −0.29 | −0.10 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| JJ Peterka R | 15:51 | −0.33 | −0.26 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Cozens C | 16:26 | −0.33 | −0.28 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Bowen Byram D | 24:46 | 1 | −0.33 | −0.21 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 22:32 | −0.38 | −0.21 | −0.16 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Lafferty C | 10:08 | 1 | −0.39 | +0.05 | −0.44 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jiri Kulich C | 14:50 | −0.41 | −0.08 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Tage Thompson C | 18:35 | 1 | −0.46 | −0.28 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Tuch R | 18:23 | −0.53 | −0.29 | −0.23 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen G | 58:00 | +1.50 |
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Robertson L | 15:15 | 1 | 2 | +0.91 | +0.16 | +0.70 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Wyatt Johnston C | 21:00 | 1 | +0.80 | +0.42 | +0.30 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Roope Hintz C | 15:32 | 1 | +0.66 | +0.15 | +0.45 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Miro Heiskanen D | 25:09 | +0.29 | +0.32 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Esa Lindell D | 22:00 | 1 | +0.21 | +0.21 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ilya Lyubushkin D | 17:02 | +0.14 | +0.14 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Duchene C | 20:47 | +0.11 | +0.40 | −0.43 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Mathew Dumba D | 17:15 | +0.11 | +0.16 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Hryckowian C | 7:30 | +0.10 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.01 | ||
| Nils Lundkvist D | 16:37 | +0.08 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mavrik Bourque C | 13:29 | +0.07 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Thomas Harley D | 19:59 | 2 | +0.06 | +0.15 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Oskar Bäck C | 15:07 | +0.04 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Sam Steel C | 14:54 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgenii Dadonov L | 12:41 | −0.21 | −0.04 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin Blackwell C | 10:47 | −0.30 | +0.02 | −0.31 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Stankoven C | 15:54 | −0.34 | +0.11 | −0.43 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Benn L | 19:02 | −0.80 | +0.36 | −1.23 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Casey DeSmith G | 60:00 | +0.23 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.