FLA beat NYR 5–3. FLA lost the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 4.1 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Jesper Boqvist scored at 11:38 of the third, moving FLA’s win probability from 52% to 84%. Igor Shesterkin allowed 1.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYR–FLA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:04 | FLA | Eetu Luostarinen from Gustav Forsling | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 5:21 | FLA | Mackie Samoskevich from Dmitry Kulikov, Uvis Balinskis | 0–2 | 69% → 83% |
| P2 14:25 |  NYR | Filip Chytil from Brett Berard | 1–2 | 10% → 25% |
| P2 16:17 | NYR | Ryan Lindgren from Adam Fox, Sam Carrick | 2–2 | 24% → 47% |
| P2 16:55 | FLA | Jesper Boqvist from Anton Lundell, Uvis Balinskis | 2–3 | 53% → 76% |
| P3 5:19 | NYR | Chris KreiderPP from Artemi Panarin, Vincent Trocheck | 3–3 | 21% → 48% |
| P3 11:38 | FLA | Jesper Boqvist from Adam Boqvist | 3–4 | 52% → 84% |
| P3 19:23 | FLA | Aleksander BarkovEN unassisted | 3–5 | 96% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Lindgren D | 17:27 | 1 | +0.84 | +0.25 | +0.79 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Chris Kreider L | 19:58 | 1 | +0.57 | +0.04 | +0.56 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Fox D | 26:33 | 1 | +0.52 | +0.54 | −0.08 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Filip Chytil C | 14:52 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Brett Berard L | 9:58 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.10 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Artemi Panarin L | 21:14 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.13 | −0.16 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Edstrom C | 7:25 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Reilly Smith R | 16:50 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jimmy Vesey L | 7:05 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Will Borgen D | 19:08 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Braden Schneider D | 14:30 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Urho Vaakanainen D | 12:19 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Carrick C | 9:17 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Mika Zibanejad C | 16:25 | −0.15 | −0.08 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| K'Andre Miller D | 21:54 | −0.17 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexis Lafrenière L | 20:16 | −0.24 | +0.24 | −0.47 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vincent Trocheck C | 22:57 | 1 | −0.34 | +0.25 | −0.55 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Will Cuylle L | 16:01 | −0.50 | +0.12 | −0.61 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Igor Shesterkin G | 57:51 | −1.33 |
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesper Boqvist C | 12:03 | 2 | +1.36 | +0.11 | +1.25 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Eetu Luostarinen C | 12:00 | 1 | +0.70 | −0.10 | +0.79 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mackie Samoskevich R | 9:08 | 1 | +0.59 | +0.05 | +0.55 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nate Schmidt D | 13:55 | +0.13 | +0.10 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Nosek L | 8:27 | +0.11 | +0.00 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.20 | −0.01 | ||
| Adam Boqvist D | 12:37 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.18 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Reinhart C | 23:14 | +0.06 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| A.J. Greer L | 7:04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Uvis Balinskis D | 15:25 | 2 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Dmitry Kulikov D | 19:32 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anton Lundell C | 18:20 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.04 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Carter Verhaeghe C | 16:26 | −0.26 | +0.15 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Evan Rodrigues C | 18:17 | −0.27 | −0.25 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Gustav Forsling D | 26:09 | 1 | −0.49 | −0.39 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Bennett C | 13:50 | −0.49 | −0.19 | −0.30 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Aaron Ekblad D | 25:55 | −0.50 | −0.34 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Aleksander Barkov C | 22:29 | 1 | −0.51 | −0.13 | −0.24 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.05 | |
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 16:46 | −0.62 | −0.26 | −0.18 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky G | 60:00 | +0.70 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.