OTT beat MIN 3–1. OTT also won the expected-goals battle 3.0 to 2.3: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Josh Norris scored on the power play at 12:42 of the third, moving OTT’s win probability from 50% to 83%. Leevi Meriläinen saved 1.5 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | OTT–MIN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 17:19 | MIN | Frederick Gaudreau from Declan Chisholm, Marcus Foligno | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 1:47 | OTT | Ridly Greig from Brady Tkachuk, Travis Hamonic | 1–1 | 28% → 47% |
| P3 12:42 | OTT | Josh NorrisPP from Jake Sanderson, Drake Batherson | 2–1 | 50% → 83% |
| P3 19:16 | OTT | Claude GirouxEN unassisted | 3–1 | 95% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ridly Greig C | 19:38 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.26 | +0.57 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Norris C | 16:48 | 1 | +0.61 | +0.07 | +0.58 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Drake Batherson R | 16:56 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.05 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 | −0.01 | |
| Claude Giroux R | 15:14 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Tyler Kleven D | 10:43 | +0.09 | +0.14 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikolas Matinpalo D | 10:24 | +0.08 | +0.25 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Tim Stützle C | 19:48 | +0.07 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Noah Gregor L | 10:37 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Nick Jensen D | 24:44 | −0.05 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shane Pinto C | 19:09 | −0.07 | +0.18 | −0.22 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Thomas Chabot D | 25:45 | −0.08 | +0.08 | −0.16 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Sanderson D | 23:23 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.04 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cole Reinhardt L | 8:15 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Hamonic D | 22:01 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zack Ostapchuk C | 7:56 | −0.24 | −0.03 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Nick Cousins C | 12:57 | −0.37 | +0.06 | −0.43 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Tkachuk L | 18:08 | 1 | −0.45 | +0.15 | −0.60 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Adam Gaudette R | 13:29 | −0.47 | +0.05 | −0.47 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Leevi Meriläinen G | 59:38 | +1.53 |
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 12:44 | 1 | +0.60 | −0.09 | +0.72 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Devin Shore C | 7:48 | +0.20 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Jon Merrill D | 12:48 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marco Rossi C | 22:26 | −0.00 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.20 | +0.03 | ||
| Marat Khusnutdinov C | 10:18 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Marcus Johansson L | 14:21 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Foligno L | 13:51 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Declan Chisholm D | 18:00 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonas Brodin D | 25:02 | −0.14 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Jones C | 7:36 | −0.16 | +0.03 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Faber D | 25:36 | −0.21 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yakov Trenin C | 14:19 | −0.23 | −0.24 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jared Spurgeon D | 22:11 | −0.28 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.08 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Bogosian D | 12:50 | −0.33 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Boldy L | 21:52 | −0.42 | −0.10 | −0.34 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mats Zuccarello C | 21:09 | −0.42 | −0.11 | −0.34 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Hartman R | 13:48 | −0.44 | +0.08 | −0.51 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 19:21 | −0.45 | +0.02 | −0.48 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Filip Gustavsson G | 58:33 | +1.40 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.