PIT beat NYI 3–2. PIT also won the expected-goals battle 4.2 to 2.9: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Anthony Beauvillier scored at 3:54 of the first, moving PIT’s win probability from 53% to 69%. Alex Nedeljkovic saved 1.4 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYI–PIT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:54 |  PIT | Anthony Beauvillier from Michael Bunting, Matt Grzelcyk | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P2 1:36 | PIT | Michael BuntingPP from Sidney Crosby, Philip Tomasino | 0–2 | 72% → 86% |
| P3 6:57 | PIT | Evgeni MalkinPP from Philip Tomasino, Cody Glass | 0–3 | 95% → 99% |
| P3 12:59 | NYI | Anders LeePP from Alexander Romanov | 1–3 | 0% → 2% |
| P3 16:10 | NYI | Bo HorvatPP from Ryan Pulock, Adam Pelech | 2–3 | 1% → 10% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anders Lee C | 19:16 | 1 | +0.40 | +0.01 | +0.45 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Bo Horvat C | 20:03 | 1 | +0.37 | −0.07 | +0.48 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Scott Mayfield D | 13:41 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Hudson Fasching R | 7:31 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Cizikas C | 10:37 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Isaiah George D | 16:03 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 18:48 | −0.10 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Simon Holmstrom R | 15:20 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Maxim Tsyplakov R | 12:18 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Pulock D | 18:48 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.16 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mathew Barzal C | 20:31 | −0.14 | +0.04 | −0.38 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.20 | −0.01 | ||
| Alexander Romanov D | 21:56 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle Palmieri C | 17:59 | −0.15 | −0.10 | −0.06 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Brock Nelson C | 19:17 | −0.20 | −0.17 | −0.19 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.20 | −0.03 | ||
| Adam Pelech D | 22:39 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.13 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anthony Duclair L | 16:04 | −0.38 | −0.02 | −0.37 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle MacLean C | 6:15 | −0.40 | +0.00 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | −0.02 | ||
| Noah Dobson D | 22:55 | −0.69 | −0.01 | −0.50 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Marcus Hogberg G | 57:00 | +0.99 |
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evgeni Malkin C | 15:03 | 1 | +0.88 | +0.10 | +0.73 | +0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Michael Bunting L | 13:32 | 1 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.02 | +0.71 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 10:47 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.01 | +0.22 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Philip Tomasino C | 12:57 | 2 | +0.18 | +0.15 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Shea D | 12:47 | +0.09 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Grzelcyk D | 20:15 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.07 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Graves D | 21:56 | +0.04 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Lizotte C | 12:51 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Noel Acciari C | 12:57 | −0.06 | +0.05 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Matt Nieto L | 12:03 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Pierre-Olivier Joseph D | 24:14 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew O'Connor L | 12:57 | −0.14 | +0.14 | −0.24 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Erik Karlsson D | 26:51 | −0.18 | +0.13 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sidney Crosby C | 21:26 | 1 | −0.24 | +0.13 | −0.61 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.20 | −0.01 | |
| Nathan Clurman D | 11:05 | −0.27 | +0.07 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Glass C | 13:11 | 1 | −0.31 | +0.16 | −0.42 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Rickard Rakell R | 20:14 | −0.32 | +0.06 | −0.20 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Bryan Rust R | 21:32 | −0.60 | +0.06 | −0.64 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Nedeljkovic G | 59:22 | +1.44 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.