SEA beat VAN 5–4 in overtime. SEA also won the expected-goals battle 2.9 to 2.3: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Vince Dunn scored at 2:15 of overtime, moving SEA’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Thatcher Demko allowed 2.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SEA–VAN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 16:03 | VAN | Brock BoeserPP from Jake DeBrusk, J.T. Miller | 0–1 | 54% → 71% |
| P2 1:18 |  SEA | Matty Beniers from Jamie Oleksiak | 1–1 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 8:36 | VAN | Conor Garland from Teddy Blueger, Carson Soucy | 1–2 | 53% → 73% |
| P2 15:14 | VAN | Brock Boeser from Carson Soucy, Danton Heinen | 1–3 | 75% → 90% |
| P3 3:09 | VAN | Jake DeBrusk from J.T. Miller, Derek Forbort | 1–4 | 93% → 99% |
| P3 15:15 | SEA | Jaden Schwartz from Vince Dunn, Daniel Sprong | 2–4 | 0% → 1% |
| P3 18:48 | SEA | Vince DunnPP unassisted | 3–4 | 0% → 4% |
| P3 19:10 | SEA | Jaden SchwartzPP from Oliver Bjorkstrand | 4–4 | 4% → 50% |
| OT 2:15 | SEA | Vince Dunn unassisted | 5–4 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SEA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Dunn D | 22:26 | 2 | 1 | +1.65 | +0.22 | +1.41 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jaden Schwartz C | 21:17 | 2 | +1.39 | +0.07 | +1.32 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matty Beniers C | 19:02 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.01 | +0.73 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Daniel Sprong R | 10:12 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Chandler Stephenson C | 17:39 | +0.18 | +0.23 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Ryker Evans D | 18:48 | +0.12 | +0.13 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joshua Mahura D | 12:26 | +0.10 | +0.10 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared McCann L | 17:47 | +0.07 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Larsson D | 17:08 | +0.02 | +0.06 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shane Wright C | 14:23 | +0.02 | +0.19 | −0.39 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Yanni Gourde C | 17:55 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Tye Kartye L | 11:16 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kaapo Kakko R | 18:18 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 15:40 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.10 | −0.17 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Montour D | 28:47 | −0.14 | +0.07 | −0.21 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eeli Tolvanen R | 13:38 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Tanev L | 11:43 | −0.25 | +0.05 | −0.28 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 16:11 | 1 | −0.37 | −0.01 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Philipp Grubauer G | 60:15 | −1.59 |
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Boeser R | 17:15 | 2 | +1.31 | −0.19 | +1.51 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Conor Garland R | 17:29 | 1 | +0.60 | −0.10 | +0.86 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Jake DeBrusk L | 16:44 | 1 | 1 | +0.50 | −0.08 | +0.57 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Kiefer Sherwood L | 14:04 | +0.14 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.01 | ||
| Vincent Desharnais D | 17:18 | +0.09 | +0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Juulsen D | 18:52 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Phillip Di Giuseppe L | 13:58 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Danton Heinen L | 13:50 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Max Sasson C | 12:38 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.19 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.20 | −0.03 | ||
| Teddy Blueger C | 15:08 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.05 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Pius Suter C | 16:19 | −0.14 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carson Soucy D | 22:24 | 2 | −0.16 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Derek Forbort D | 20:07 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nils Hoglander L | 9:52 | −0.21 | −0.03 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.T. Miller C | 18:03 | 2 | −0.26 | −0.16 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Tyler Myers D | 22:14 | −0.34 | −0.34 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Brannstrom D | 19:49 | −0.34 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Dakota Joshua C | 12:41 | −0.63 | −0.12 | −0.52 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Thatcher Demko G | 62:15 | −2.04 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.