COL beat UTA 4–1. Expected goals were close to even (COL 3.6, UTA 3.4), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Artturi Lehkonen scored at 14:44 of the third, moving COL’s win probability from 49% to 86%. Mackenzie Blackwood saved 2.9 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | COL–UTA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 11:52 |  COL | Artturi Lehkonen from Nathan MacKinnon, Sam Malinski | 1–0 | 47% → 69% |
| P3 3:42 |  UTA | Nick SchmaltzPP from Mikhail Sergachev, Logan Cooley | 1–1 | 26% → 52% |
| P3 14:44 | COL | Artturi Lehkonen from Valeri Nichushkin, Nathan MacKinnon | 2–1 | 49% → 86% |
| P3 18:10 | COL | Mikko RantanenEN from Nathan MacKinnon | 3–1 | 92% → 100% |
| P3 19:34 | COL | Artturi LehkonenEN unassisted | 4–1 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 18:48 | 3 | +1.18 | −0.13 | +1.27 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Josh Manson D | 19:42 | +0.26 | +0.37 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 17:42 | +0.18 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.20 | +0.02 | ||
| Logan O'Connor R | 16:47 | +0.18 | +0.18 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Samuel Girard D | 21:35 | +0.09 | +0.17 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Kiviranta L | 15:10 | +0.02 | +0.22 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Sam Malinski D | 10:35 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Calvin de Haan D | 14:39 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Ivan C | 5:07 | −0.06 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ross Colton C | 17:06 | −0.18 | +0.22 | −0.37 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Parker Kelly C | 16:23 | −0.18 | +0.20 | −0.36 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 21:05 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.05 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Cale Makar D | 25:17 | −0.20 | +0.02 | −0.28 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Givani Smith R | 4:38 | −0.28 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikko Rantanen R | 20:03 | 1 | −0.32 | +0.14 | −0.30 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.20 | −0.01 | |
| Devon Toews D | 25:12 | −0.35 | −0.22 | −0.19 | +0.02 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jere Innala L | 5:57 | −0.41 | −0.02 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 19:08 | 3 | −0.42 | +0.10 | −0.57 | +0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Blackwood G | 60:00 | +2.87 |
UTA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Schmaltz C | 17:57 | 1 | +0.65 | −0.03 | +0.68 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Juuso Välimäki D | 16:59 | +0.26 | −0.16 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.40 | +0.00 | ||
| Olli Maatta D | 18:36 | +0.16 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Kolyachonok D | 11:44 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Stenlund C | 15:33 | −0.07 | +0.15 | −0.24 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Logan Cooley C | 19:11 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.09 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Lawson Crouse L | 13:15 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Clayton Keller R | 17:42 | −0.15 | +0.02 | −0.17 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 19:40 | −0.17 | −0.07 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 24:54 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.08 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Carcone L | 14:25 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matias Maccelli L | 13:40 | −0.22 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 14:18 | −0.33 | +0.01 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.01 | ||
| Nick Bjugstad C | 12:48 | −0.34 | −0.00 | −0.30 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Michael Kesselring D | 21:48 | −0.35 | −0.23 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Barrett Hayton C | 14:17 | −0.56 | −0.25 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | −0.04 | ||
| Dylan Guenther R | 16:16 | −0.61 | −0.01 | −0.60 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jack McBain C | 14:29 | −0.92 | −0.16 | −0.76 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka G | 58:28 | +1.78 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.