MIN beat DAL 3–2 in overtime. MIN lost the expected-goals battle 1.8 to 3.4 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Brock Faber scored at 0:35 of overtime, moving MIN’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Jake Oettinger allowed 1.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MIN–DAL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 9:52 |  DAL | Evgenii Dadonov from Wyatt Johnston, Jamie Benn | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P2 15:08 | DAL | Wyatt Johnston from Evgenii Dadonov, Ilya Lyubushkin | 0–2 | 75% → 90% |
| P3 10:36 | MIN | Jonas Brodin from Mats Zuccarello | 1–2 | 3% → 17% |
| P3 11:33 | MIN | Marcus Foligno from Jared Spurgeon, Declan Chisholm | 2–2 | 16% → 48% |
| OT 0:35 | MIN | Brock Faber from Matt Boldy, Marco Rossi | 3–2 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonas Brodin D | 24:11 | 1 | +0.67 | −0.17 | +0.80 | −0.01 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marcus Foligno L | 14:12 | 1 | +0.60 | −0.08 | +0.68 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brock Faber D | 25:28 | 1 | +0.43 | −0.16 | +0.78 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Marco Rossi C | 18:38 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.20 | −0.01 | |
| Yakov Trenin C | 15:03 | +0.05 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared Spurgeon D | 21:52 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.06 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Declan Chisholm D | 19:14 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.13 | −0.08 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marat Khusnutdinov C | 13:43 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 17:10 | −0.04 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Marcus Johansson L | 13:46 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jon Merrill D | 12:46 | −0.12 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mats Zuccarello C | 18:23 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.14 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Boldy L | 19:47 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.06 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.20 | −0.01 | |
| Ben Jones C | 9:06 | −0.18 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Devin Shore C | 11:16 | −0.31 | −0.20 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Bogosian D | 16:21 | −0.43 | −0.20 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Hartman R | 14:41 | −0.47 | −0.10 | −0.39 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Brendan Gaunce C | 10:08 | −0.48 | −0.25 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Filip Gustavsson G | 60:35 | +1.02 |
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wyatt Johnston C | 18:58 | 1 | 1 | +0.81 | −0.03 | +0.62 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.01 |
| Evgenii Dadonov L | 17:36 | 1 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.10 | +0.70 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Oskar Bäck C | 14:09 | +0.30 | +0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.03 | ||
| Nils Lundkvist D | 15:52 | +0.09 | +0.12 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Benn L | 16:55 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Lian Bichsel D | 13:03 | +0.07 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Esa Lindell D | 22:11 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Duchene C | 16:54 | +0.02 | +0.06 | −0.09 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ilya Lyubushkin D | 15:05 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.07 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Steel C | 17:05 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Colin Blackwell C | 11:39 | −0.06 | +0.06 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Miro Heiskanen D | 27:46 | −0.07 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Thomas Harley D | 21:23 | −0.10 | +0.20 | −0.31 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Stankoven C | 17:54 | −0.10 | +0.14 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mavrik Bourque C | 12:36 | −0.13 | +0.03 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jason Robertson L | 18:50 | −0.21 | −0.04 | −0.20 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason Marchment L | 4:58 | −0.35 | +0.14 | −0.51 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Roope Hintz C | 16:51 | −0.50 | −0.03 | −0.43 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Oettinger G | 60:35 | −1.29 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.