CBJ beat MTL 5–4. Expected goals were close to even (MTL 3.1, CBJ 3.2), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Kirill Marchenko scored at 17:48 of the third, moving CBJ’s win probability from 50% to 93%. Samuel Montembeault allowed 1.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MTL–CBJ | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 12:03 | CBJ | Dmitri Voronkov from Sean Monahan | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 18:45 | CBJ | Kent Johnson from Zach Werenski, Mathieu Olivier | 0–2 | 71% → 85% |
| P2 2:03 | MTL | David Savard from Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki | 1–2 | 14% → 28% |
| P2 3:34 | CBJ | Jordan Harris from Sean Monahan, Kirill Marchenko | 1–3 | 72% → 86% |
| P2 7:03 | MTL | Lane Hutson from Juraj Slafkovský, Cole Caufield | 2–3 | 13% → 27% |
| P2 14:26 | MTL | Jake Evans from Emil Heineman, David Savard | 3–3 | 25% → 47% |
| P3 0:20 | MTL | Joel Armia from Jake Evans, Alexandre Carrier | 4–3 | 48% → 73% |
| P3 3:24 | CBJ | Dmitri VoronkovPP from Kirill Marchenko, Zach Werenski | 4–4 | 26% → 52% |
| P3 17:48 | CBJ | Kirill Marchenko from Sean Monahan, Zach Werenski | 4–5 | 50% → 93% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Evans C | 14:43 | 1 | 1 | +0.69 | +0.14 | +0.28 | +0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.12 |
| David Savard D | 17:15 | 1 | 1 | +0.68 | −0.01 | +0.42 | +0.05 | +0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 |
| Joel Armia R | 12:46 | 1 | +0.44 | +0.13 | +0.29 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Emil Heineman L | 11:43 | 1 | +0.27 | +0.16 | −0.05 | +0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexandre Carrier D | 16:39 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.17 | −0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lane Hutson D | 24:31 | 1 | +0.18 | −0.13 | +0.44 | −0.10 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Christian Dvorak C | 15:31 | +0.06 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Kaiden Guhle D | 18:00 | +0.06 | +0.14 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Arber Xhekaj D | 15:26 | +0.05 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 17:46 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.27 | −0.00 | +0.24 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Alex Newhook C | 15:37 | −0.05 | +0.16 | −0.07 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Patrik Laine L | 6:15 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nick Suzuki C | 21:22 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.19 | −0.16 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.20 | −0.06 | |
| Josh Anderson R | 14:41 | −0.20 | −0.05 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Kirby Dach C | 15:48 | −0.26 | +0.15 | −0.36 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Cole Caufield R | 18:27 | 2 | −0.39 | −0.28 | −0.18 | +0.32 | −0.04 | −0.20 | −0.01 | |
| Mike Matheson D | 26:15 | −0.47 | −0.24 | −0.08 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Gallagher R | 14:35 | −0.47 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.40 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Samuel Montembeault G | 58:25 | −1.82 |
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirill Marchenko R | 23:17 | 1 | 2 | +0.96 | +0.20 | +0.31 | +0.26 | +0.00 | +0.20 | −0.01 |
| Sean Monahan C | 22:37 | 3 | +0.63 | +0.18 | −0.31 | +0.61 | +0.00 | +0.20 | −0.05 | |
| Dmitri Voronkov L | 20:43 | 2 | +0.52 | +0.03 | +0.65 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.20 | −0.01 | |
| Jordan Harris D | 6:26 | 1 | +0.36 | −0.05 | +0.46 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Werenski D | 28:44 | 3 | +0.25 | +0.19 | −0.21 | +0.26 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kent Johnson C | 15:41 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.04 | +0.28 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Johnson D | 9:53 | +0.02 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathieu Olivier R | 17:25 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.06 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Denton Mateychuk D | 18:36 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dante Fabbro D | 23:28 | −0.04 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| James van Riemsdyk L | 11:54 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Christiansen D | 6:33 | −0.09 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Provorov D | 25:01 | −0.09 | +0.11 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary Aston-Reese C | 11:55 | −0.12 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Pyyhtia L | 10:55 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Kuraly C | 8:43 | −0.18 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Cole Sillinger C | 20:00 | −0.18 | −0.02 | −0.14 | −0.07 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Adam Fantilli C | 14:20 | −0.26 | −0.17 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jet Greaves G | 59:49 | −0.85 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.