PHI beat CBJ 5–4 in overtime. PHI also won the expected-goals battle 3.4 to 2.4: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Owen Tippett scored at 3:30 of overtime, moving PHI’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Elvis Merzlikins allowed 1.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CBJ–PHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 15:47 | CBJ | Mathieu Olivier from Kent Johnson | 1–0 | 47% → 65% |
| P2 7:05 | CBJ | Mikael Pyyhtia from Sean Kuraly | 2–0 | 67% → 83% |
| P3 6:53 |  PHI | Morgan Frost from Owen Tippett, Travis Konecny | 2–1 | 6% → 23% |
| P3 8:48 | PHI | Noah Cates from Tyson Foerster, Cam York | 2–2 | 21% → 52% |
| P3 10:01 | CBJ | Kirill Marchenko from Dmitri Voronkov, Ivan Provorov | 3–2 | 48% → 80% |
| P3 11:51 | PHI | Morgan Frost from Owen Tippett, Travis Konecny | 3–3 | 18% → 52% |
| P3 15:49 | CBJ | Jake Christiansen from Dmitri Voronkov | 4–3 | 49% → 88% |
| P3 18:16 | PHI | Tyson FoersterPP from Travis Konecny, Owen Tippett | 4–4 | 7% → 50% |
| OT 3:30 | PHI | Owen Tippett from Noah Cates | 4–5 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Christiansen D | 15:24 | 1 | +0.87 | −0.07 | +0.93 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mathieu Olivier R | 16:51 | 1 | +0.57 | −0.14 | +0.71 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikael Pyyhtia L | 10:45 | 1 | +0.49 | −0.16 | +0.66 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kirill Marchenko R | 18:48 | 1 | +0.49 | +0.20 | +0.30 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Sean Monahan C | 21:22 | +0.27 | +0.30 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Damon Severson D | 28:41 | +0.17 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Provorov D | 26:57 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.12 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| James van Riemsdyk L | 10:11 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Dmitri Voronkov L | 15:57 | 2 | −0.09 | +0.04 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Werenski D | 27:32 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Johnson D | 13:43 | −0.11 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Fantilli C | 13:55 | −0.13 | +0.02 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jordan Harris D | 10:34 | −0.15 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| James Malatesta L | 10:12 | −0.18 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Sean Kuraly C | 11:27 | 1 | −0.33 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Kent Johnson C | 17:57 | 1 | −0.57 | −0.21 | −0.35 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zachary Aston-Reese C | 12:06 | −0.60 | +0.09 | −0.30 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.40 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Sillinger C | 20:08 | −0.79 | −0.25 | −0.50 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Elvis Merzlikins G | 63:30 | −1.59 |
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Frost C | 18:51 | 2 | +1.32 | −0.12 | +1.65 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.20 | −0.02 | |
| Noah Cates L | 16:12 | 1 | 1 | +0.75 | −0.00 | +0.70 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 |
| Tyson Foerster R | 17:55 | 1 | 1 | +0.69 | +0.04 | +0.65 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Owen Tippett R | 19:11 | 1 | 3 | +0.49 | +0.07 | +0.42 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Ryan Poehling C | 10:27 | +0.33 | +0.19 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Garnet Hathaway R | 9:13 | +0.21 | +0.22 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Seeler D | 14:56 | +0.11 | +0.15 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Farabee L | 13:06 | +0.02 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.20 | −0.02 | ||
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 19:43 | −0.10 | +0.19 | −0.28 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Egor Zamula D | 18:33 | −0.13 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Sanheim D | 25:42 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Drysdale D | 15:31 | −0.15 | −0.06 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam York D | 23:34 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.16 | −0.31 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Bobby Brink R | 15:02 | −0.16 | −0.13 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matvei Michkov R | 18:38 | −0.18 | +0.03 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Olle Lycksell R | 10:58 | −0.19 | +0.21 | −0.39 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Laughton C | 16:05 | −0.28 | +0.04 | −0.28 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Travis Konecny R | 23:11 | 3 | −0.31 | −0.18 | −0.13 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Samuel Ersson G | 63:12 | −1.07 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.