NYI beat TOR 6–3. NYI also won the expected-goals battle 3.1 to 2.5: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Isaiah George scored at 5:23 of the third, moving NYI’s win probability from 76% to 93%. Joseph Woll allowed 1.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYI–TOR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:47 | NYI | Maxim Tsyplakov from Bo Horvat, Simon Holmstrom | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 4:48 | NYI | Bo Horvat from Alexander Romanov | 2–0 | 63% → 75% |
| P1 12:29 | TOR | William Nylander from John Tavares, Oliver Ekman-Larsson | 2–1 | 22% → 36% |
| P1 16:08 | NYI | Jean-Gabriel Pageau from Anders Lee, Alexander Romanov | 3–1 | 65% → 79% |
| P2 5:43 | TOR | William Nylander from David Kampf, Matthew Knies | 3–2 | 18% → 33% |
| P3 5:23 | NYI | Isaiah George from Anthony Duclair, Scott Mayfield | 4–2 | 76% → 93% |
| P3 10:36 | NYI | Noah Dobson from Simon Holmstrom, Bo Horvat | 5–2 | 96% → 99% |
| P3 13:49 | TOR | Bobby McMann from Mitch Marner, Jake McCabe | 5–3 | 0% → 2% |
| P3 17:40 | NYI | Mathew BarzalEN from Anders Lee | 6–3 | 99% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Dobson D | 23:02 | 1 | +0.87 | −0.05 | +0.91 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Isaiah George D | 14:51 | 1 | +0.87 | +0.10 | +0.79 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Maxim Tsyplakov R | 17:38 | 1 | +0.67 | −0.05 | +0.75 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Bo Horvat C | 14:41 | 1 | 2 | +0.67 | −0.01 | +0.68 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 14:55 | 1 | +0.53 | +0.10 | +0.42 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Scott Mayfield D | 15:46 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.12 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Hudson Fasching R | 10:59 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Duclair L | 15:14 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Pelech D | 22:07 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Nelson C | 17:34 | −0.04 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Kyle Palmieri C | 18:04 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Pulock D | 21:35 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.08 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Cizikas C | 11:11 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Alexander Romanov D | 22:48 | 2 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mathew Barzal C | 16:43 | 1 | −0.18 | +0.10 | −0.34 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Kyle MacLean C | 11:58 | −0.22 | +0.03 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anders Lee C | 15:13 | 2 | −0.36 | +0.08 | −0.44 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Simon Holmstrom R | 15:41 | 2 | −0.38 | −0.01 | −0.35 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Sorokin G | 60:00 | −0.24 |
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Nylander R | 20:50 | 2 | +1.04 | +0.04 | +1.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Bobby McMann C | 16:09 | 1 | +0.51 | −0.11 | +0.60 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Morgan Rielly D | 22:46 | +0.17 | +0.19 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Tanev D | 18:58 | +0.08 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Knies L | 18:03 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 21:56 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor Dewar C | 11:16 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Conor Timmins D | 13:43 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Steven Lorentz C | 12:36 | −0.06 | +0.03 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Kampf C | 15:28 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.03 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Simon Benoit D | 19:21 | −0.11 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicholas Robertson L | 12:00 | −0.17 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mitch Marner R | 18:07 | 1 | −0.18 | +0.05 | −0.25 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake McCabe D | 21:19 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.22 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Reaves R | 11:54 | −0.22 | +0.02 | −0.22 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Pacioretty L | 13:04 | −0.33 | −0.13 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Tavares C | 20:02 | 1 | −0.37 | −0.05 | −0.26 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Max Domi C | 14:53 | −0.43 | −0.02 | −0.41 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joseph Woll G | 57:35 | −1.79 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.