COL beat ANA 4–2. Expected goals were close to even (COL 2.9, ANA 2.7), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Valeri Nichushkin scored at 10:57 of the second, moving COL’s win probability from 47% to 69%. Scott Wedgewood saved 1.3 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | COL–ANA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 2:40 |  ANA | Leo Carlsson from Jacob Trouba, Brock McGinn | 0–1 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 6:40 | COL | Parker KellySH from Logan O'Connor | 1–1 | 26% → 46% |
| P2 10:57 | COL | Valeri Nichushkin from Cale Makar, Nathan MacKinnon | 2–1 | 47% → 69% |
| P3 3:30 | COL | Cale MakarPP from Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen | 3–1 | 76% → 91% |
| P3 13:05 | ANA | Alex Killorn from Pavel Mintyukov | 3–2 | 3% → 16% |
| P3 18:41 | COL | Nathan MacKinnonEN from Mikko Rantanen, Valeri Nichushkin | 4–2 | 93% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Kelly C | 14:03 | 1 | +0.64 | +0.07 | +0.72 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.05 | |
| Cale Makar D | 23:02 | 1 | 1 | +0.47 | +0.35 | +0.07 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 21:19 | 1 | 1 | +0.44 | +0.09 | +0.36 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jere Innala L | 7:09 | +0.25 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Ross Colton C | 17:14 | +0.18 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.20 | −0.01 | ||
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 19:00 | +0.15 | +0.03 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.20 | +0.01 | ||
| Logan O'Connor R | 16:35 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.12 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Ivan Ivan C | 7:49 | +0.07 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Mikko Rantanen R | 19:51 | 2 | +0.05 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Keaton Middleton D | 8:18 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Calvin de Haan D | 18:13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Devon Toews D | 23:14 | −0.00 | +0.15 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Givani Smith R | 6:08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Malinski D | 18:40 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 18:49 | 1 | 2 | −0.11 | +0.08 | −0.23 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 16:06 | −0.18 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Joel Kiviranta L | 11:24 | −0.41 | +0.02 | −0.22 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Samuel Girard D | 23:07 | −0.51 | −0.00 | −0.50 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Scott Wedgewood G | 59:59 | +1.33 |
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leo Carlsson C | 17:11 | 1 | +0.89 | +0.06 | +0.79 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Alex Killorn L | 17:42 | 1 | +0.45 | −0.21 | +0.67 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jacob Trouba D | 19:28 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.06 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Olen Zellweger D | 20:08 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Mintyukov D | 16:00 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Troy Terry R | 20:37 | −0.08 | −0.18 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Brian Dumoulin D | 21:00 | −0.13 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cutter Gauthier L | 15:55 | −0.21 | −0.10 | −0.51 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.40 | +0.00 | ||
| Isac Lundeström C | 12:23 | −0.23 | −0.08 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Ross Johnston L | 7:09 | −0.23 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Jansen Harkins C | 12:01 | −0.25 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Radko Gudas D | 12:24 | −0.25 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason McTavish C | 14:50 | −0.28 | −0.08 | −0.40 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.20 | +0.01 | ||
| Robby Fabbri C | 16:44 | −0.33 | −0.13 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jackson LaCombe D | 20:31 | −0.34 | −0.16 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock McGinn L | 14:31 | 1 | −0.35 | +0.09 | −0.41 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Strome C | 17:17 | −0.62 | −0.13 | −0.49 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Frank Vatrano R | 19:59 | −0.77 | −0.20 | −0.32 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.20 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| John Gibson G | 57:39 | −0.05 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.