NYR beat DAL 3–1. NYR lost the expected-goals battle 2.8 to 6.3 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Vincent Trocheck scored at 15:20 of the first, moving NYR’s win probability from 47% to 65%. Igor Shesterkin saved 7.6 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYR–DAL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:46 |  DAL | Roope Hintz from Nils Lundkvist, Jason Robertson | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 10:44 | NYR | Reilly SmithSH unassisted | 1–1 | 29% → 46% |
| P1 15:20 | NYR | Vincent Trocheck from Adam Fox, Artemi Panarin | 2–1 | 47% → 65% |
| P3 17:54 | NYR | Chris KreiderEN from Will Cuylle, Vincent Trocheck | 3–1 | 92% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Rempe C | 5:32 | +0.24 | −0.00 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.40 | +0.00 | ||
| Reilly Smith R | 18:18 | 1 | +0.09 | −0.61 | +0.73 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Edstrom C | 7:30 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Carrick C | 14:28 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Vincent Trocheck C | 23:26 | 1 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.34 | +0.33 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Alexis Lafrenière L | 15:24 | −0.15 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Artemi Panarin L | 17:25 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Will Borgen D | 17:17 | −0.21 | −0.07 | −0.10 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Berard L | 7:46 | −0.22 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Will Cuylle L | 15:15 | 1 | −0.22 | +0.02 | −0.17 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Chad Ruhwedel D | 15:07 | −0.27 | −0.26 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Fox D | 27:15 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.20 | −0.24 | +0.13 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Filip Chytil C | 9:55 | −0.35 | +0.01 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Braden Schneider D | 20:24 | −0.37 | −0.18 | −0.10 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Kreider L | 15:48 | 1 | −0.46 | +0.01 | −0.16 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.20 | −0.01 | |
| Mika Zibanejad C | 17:27 | −0.48 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.04 | ||
| Ryan Lindgren D | 20:00 | −0.52 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Urho Vaakanainen D | 14:52 | −0.53 | −0.31 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Igor Shesterkin G | 60:00 | +7.61 |
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esa Lindell D | 15:38 | +0.36 | +0.17 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Oskar Bäck C | 11:24 | +0.21 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.01 | ||
| Roope Hintz C | 19:23 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.32 | +0.09 | −0.29 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Evgenii Dadonov L | 9:18 | +0.08 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Robertson L | 22:05 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.55 | −0.33 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mavrik Bourque C | 12:35 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.30 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.20 | −0.02 | ||
| Sam Steel C | 17:11 | +0.01 | +0.14 | −0.00 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Thomas Harley D | 22:09 | +0.01 | +0.26 | +0.00 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Stankoven C | 16:53 | −0.07 | +0.20 | −0.10 | −0.13 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nils Lundkvist D | 14:59 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.14 | −0.16 | +0.15 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Ilya Lyubushkin D | 13:48 | −0.07 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Benn L | 19:21 | −0.13 | +0.31 | −0.11 | −0.37 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Colin Blackwell C | 13:28 | −0.17 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Miro Heiskanen D | 24:06 | −0.19 | +0.33 | −0.45 | −0.27 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Duchene C | 17:20 | −0.24 | +0.12 | −0.23 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Lian Bichsel D | 10:25 | −0.32 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason Marchment L | 15:06 | −0.43 | +0.10 | −0.23 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.20 | −0.01 | ||
| Wyatt Johnston C | 21:03 | −0.55 | +0.39 | −0.68 | −0.21 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Oettinger G | 57:48 | +1.23 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.