MTL beat DET 4–3. Expected goals were close to even (MTL 2.6, DET 2.8), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Patrik Laine scored on the power play at 12:02 of the third, moving MTL’s win probability from 50% to 82%. Cam Talbot allowed 1.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MTL–DET | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:09 |  MTL | Emil Heineman from Jake Evans, Mike Matheson | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 13:27 |  DET | Patrick Kane from Andrew Copp, Alex DeBrincat | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P1 18:31 | MTL | Jake EvansSH unassisted | 2–1 | 46% → 65% |
| P1 19:27 | DET | Joe Veleno from Jeff Petry, Michael Rasmussen | 2–2 | 35% → 53% |
| P3 1:40 | DET | Tyler Motte from Michael Rasmussen | 2–3 | 52% → 78% |
| P3 8:42 | MTL | Arber Xhekaj from Joel Armia, Emil Heineman | 3–3 | 18% → 48% |
| P3 12:02 | MTL | Patrik LainePP from Lane Hutson, Cole Caufield | 4–3 | 50% → 82% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emil Heineman L | 9:39 | 1 | 1 | +0.93 | +0.09 | +0.86 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Arber Xhekaj D | 14:36 | 1 | +0.74 | −0.07 | +0.84 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Evans C | 16:02 | 1 | 1 | +0.70 | +0.07 | +0.64 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Patrik Laine L | 13:37 | 1 | +0.46 | +0.06 | +0.59 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Lane Hutson D | 20:26 | 1 | +0.36 | +0.14 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Newhook C | 12:48 | +0.06 | +0.14 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Mike Matheson D | 24:21 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.11 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexandre Carrier D | 18:37 | −0.12 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Armia R | 16:59 | 1 | −0.13 | +0.04 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Suzuki C | 17:43 | −0.16 | −0.09 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| David Savard D | 19:49 | −0.20 | −0.19 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Anderson R | 15:01 | −0.23 | −0.10 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Brendan Gallagher R | 11:11 | −0.24 | −0.02 | −0.42 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Kirby Dach C | 12:25 | −0.26 | +0.14 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | −0.05 | ||
| Kaiden Guhle D | 18:58 | −0.28 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Dvorak C | 15:18 | −0.31 | −0.19 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Cole Caufield R | 16:49 | 1 | −0.32 | −0.11 | −0.21 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 17:41 | −0.44 | −0.10 | −0.14 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Samuel Montembeault G | 60:00 | −0.38 |
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Kane R | 18:06 | 1 | +0.89 | +0.10 | +0.74 | +0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Motte C | 10:49 | 1 | +0.63 | −0.07 | +0.71 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joe Veleno C | 11:40 | 1 | +0.52 | −0.14 | +0.86 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.02 | |
| Lucas Raymond L | 19:57 | +0.29 | +0.15 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Moritz Seider D | 27:17 | +0.27 | +0.03 | −0.18 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.40 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Gustafsson D | 14:51 | +0.14 | +0.14 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Chiarot D | 22:59 | +0.07 | −0.04 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Larkin C | 19:55 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.22 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Albert Johansson D | 9:58 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Rasmussen C | 13:31 | 2 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex DeBrincat R | 18:24 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.09 | −0.19 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marco Kasper C | 16:07 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Jeff Petry D | 18:10 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Holl D | 17:06 | −0.17 | −0.12 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.T. Compher L | 16:43 | −0.18 | −0.03 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 15:17 | −0.23 | +0.06 | −0.31 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Fischer R | 10:28 | −0.34 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Copp C | 17:11 | 1 | −0.43 | +0.06 | −0.50 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cam Talbot G | 58:02 | −1.30 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.