COL beat SJS 4–2. Expected goals were close to even (COL 2.8, SJS 2.7), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Joel Kiviranta scored at 13:06 of the third, moving COL’s win probability from 49% to 84%. Alexandar Georgiev allowed 1.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | COL–SJS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:40 |  COL | Valeri NichushkinPP from Cale Makar, Nathan MacKinnon | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 4:26 | SJS | Carl Grundstrom from Jan Rutta, Luke Kunin | 1–1 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 9:29 | SJS | William Eklund from Cody Ceci, Luke Kunin | 1–2 | 53% → 74% |
| P3 8:26 | COL | Mikko RantanenPP from Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar | 2–2 | 19% → 48% |
| P3 13:06 | COL | Joel Kiviranta from Logan O'Connor | 3–2 | 49% → 84% |
| P3 15:58 | COL | Joel Kiviranta from Artturi Lehkonen, Casey Mittelstadt | 4–2 | 88% → 99% |
Every player
Show both lineups
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Kiviranta L | 13:37 | 2 | +1.72 | +0.08 | +1.62 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Mikko Rantanen R | 18:01 | 1 | +0.57 | −0.06 | +0.59 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Logan O'Connor R | 15:26 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.06 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.20 | −0.01 | |
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 23:18 | 2 | +0.13 | +0.15 | −0.19 | +0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Sam Malinski D | 15:15 | +0.10 | +0.16 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 15:01 | 1 | +0.08 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.20 | −0.02 | |
| Samuel Girard D | 22:02 | +0.08 | −0.04 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Devon Toews D | 26:41 | +0.07 | +0.14 | −0.13 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cale Makar D | 30:57 | 2 | +0.07 | −0.06 | −0.15 | +0.04 | +0.05 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Calvin de Haan D | 11:59 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 23:14 | 1 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Keaton Middleton D | 9:06 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Givani Smith R | 4:47 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Ivan C | 5:59 | −0.12 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Chris Wagner R | 5:06 | −0.18 | −0.03 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Parker Kelly C | 13:52 | −0.21 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.20 | −0.03 | ||
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 22:33 | 1 | −0.22 | +0.13 | −0.21 | +0.01 | +0.04 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Ross Colton C | 15:23 | −0.24 | −0.05 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Blackwood G | 59:43 | +0.57 |
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Eklund L | 20:50 | 1 | +0.76 | −0.04 | +0.81 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Carl Grundstrom R | 7:56 | 1 | +0.58 | +0.05 | +0.73 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Luke Kunin C | 10:39 | 2 | +0.12 | +0.12 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Mario Ferraro D | 17:31 | +0.09 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jan Rutta D | 16:19 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.14 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nico Sturm C | 7:39 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Tyler Toffoli C | 19:38 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Macklin Celebrini C | 22:19 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.30 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.20 | +0.01 | ||
| Shakir Mukhamadullin D | 14:14 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Henry Thrun D | 15:03 | −0.10 | +0.12 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikolai Kovalenko R | 13:56 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Wennberg C | 19:06 | −0.21 | +0.10 | −0.42 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.20 | −0.07 | ||
| Mikael Granlund C | 25:39 | −0.25 | −0.05 | −0.23 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Cody Ceci D | 19:25 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.23 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 20:40 | −0.35 | −0.24 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Barclay Goodrow C | 12:41 | −0.46 | −0.17 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.01 | ||
| Will Smith C | 11:34 | −0.46 | −0.05 | −0.40 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Walman D | 23:28 | −0.69 | −0.27 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.07 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alexandar Georgiev G | 56:57 | −1.20 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.