ANA beat WPG 3–2. ANA also won the expected-goals battle 3.2 to 2.3: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Troy Terry scored at 19:34 of the third, moving ANA’s win probability from 51% to 97%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WPG–ANA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 4:45 | ANA | Frank Vatrano from Radko Gudas, Ryan Strome | 0–1 | 53% → 73% |
| P2 10:24 |  WPG | Gabriel VilardiPP from Nikolaj Ehlers, Kyle Connor | 1–1 | 27% → 47% |
| P3 4:13 | WPG | Mark Scheifele from Kyle Connor | 2–1 | 48% → 75% |
| P3 15:14 | ANA | Frank Vatrano from Jackson LaCombe, Radko Gudas | 2–2 | 13% → 51% |
| P3 19:34 | ANA | Troy Terry from Frank Vatrano | 2–3 | 51% → 97% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Scheifele C | 19:42 | 1 | +0.51 | −0.13 | +0.66 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Gabriel Vilardi C | 17:57 | 1 | +0.44 | −0.17 | +0.61 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Josh Morrissey D | 24:13 | +0.06 | −0.03 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan DeMelo D | 18:41 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Barron C | 9:06 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Cole Perfetti C | 16:17 | −0.04 | −0.10 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Neal Pionk D | 22:53 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Haydn Fleury D | 20:51 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ville Heinola D | 12:39 | −0.07 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 16:51 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.14 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Lowry C | 15:14 | −0.07 | +0.06 | −0.16 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Nino Niederreiter R | 14:20 | −0.08 | +0.06 | −0.33 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Iafallo L | 10:44 | −0.18 | +0.05 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Kupari C | 7:12 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | −0.01 | ||
| Logan Stanley D | 15:16 | −0.22 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 17:04 | −0.22 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason Appleton C | 16:12 | −0.25 | +0.06 | −0.30 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Kyle Connor L | 19:15 | 2 | −0.55 | −0.08 | −0.43 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Eric Comrie G | 59:33 | −0.13 |
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Vatrano R | 17:46 | 2 | 1 | +1.75 | +0.21 | +1.57 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Troy Terry R | 17:27 | 1 | +1.07 | +0.20 | +0.65 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Radko Gudas D | 16:09 | 2 | +0.26 | +0.25 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brian Dumoulin D | 19:35 | +0.20 | +0.05 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Strome C | 15:46 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.16 | −0.00 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Mason McTavish C | 16:22 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.20 | −0.04 | ||
| Jansen Harkins C | 11:22 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Alex Killorn L | 18:08 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Isac Lundeström C | 14:36 | −0.20 | +0.04 | −0.28 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Ross Johnston L | 10:00 | −0.21 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Leo Carlsson C | 14:19 | −0.23 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.02 | ||
| Brock McGinn L | 13:12 | −0.28 | −0.11 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Robby Fabbri C | 16:06 | −0.29 | −0.06 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Jackson LaCombe D | 19:08 | 1 | −0.29 | +0.32 | −0.60 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cutter Gauthier L | 14:58 | −0.30 | −0.01 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Mintyukov D | 15:53 | −0.32 | +0.09 | −0.38 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Trouba D | 22:12 | −0.32 | −0.22 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Olen Zellweger D | 20:52 | −0.38 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Lukas Dostal G | 60:00 | +0.56 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.