UTA beat VAN 3–2 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (VAN 3.5, UTA 3.7), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Mikhail Sergachev scored at 4:48 of overtime, moving UTA’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Karel Vejmelka saved 1.5 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VAN–UTA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 12:39 | VAN | Danton HeinenPP from Quinn Hughes | 1–0 | 48% → 69% |
| P3 2:45 | VAN | Dakota Joshua from Teddy Blueger, Quinn Hughes | 2–0 | 74% → 91% |
| P3 9:02 |  UTA | Clayton Keller from Nick Schmaltz, Barrett Hayton | 2–1 | 5% → 21% |
| P3 15:30 | UTA | Dylan GuentherPP from Clayton Keller, Logan Cooley | 2–2 | 13% → 51% |
| OT 4:48 | UTA | Mikhail Sergachev from Logan Cooley | 2–3 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dakota Joshua C | 10:18 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.00 | +0.74 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Danton Heinen L | 13:40 | 1 | +0.52 | +0.05 | +0.66 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Conor Garland R | 21:24 | +0.20 | +0.43 | −0.46 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Boeser R | 18:13 | +0.11 | +0.09 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Nils Hoglander L | 10:16 | +0.05 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Juulsen D | 18:52 | +0.05 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vincent Desharnais D | 18:10 | −0.01 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Myers D | 21:59 | −0.05 | +0.15 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Pius Suter C | 14:31 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Kiefer Sherwood L | 16:08 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carson Soucy D | 22:16 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Teddy Blueger C | 13:26 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Elias Pettersson C | 20:44 | −0.38 | −0.13 | −0.32 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Quinn Hughes D | 26:19 | 2 | −0.40 | +0.30 | −0.70 | +0.03 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| J.T. Miller C | 21:00 | −0.41 | −0.01 | −0.42 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Max Sasson C | 12:46 | −0.51 | −0.10 | −0.39 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Erik Brannstrom D | 11:52 | −0.54 | −0.33 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake DeBrusk L | 18:08 | −0.80 | −0.55 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Thatcher Demko G | 64:48 | +1.12 |
UTA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Keller R | 19:33 | 1 | 1 | +1.08 | +0.14 | +0.53 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.40 | −0.01 |
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 27:02 | 1 | +0.93 | +0.48 | +0.44 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Juuso Välimäki D | 21:07 | +0.30 | +0.27 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Guenther R | 17:48 | 1 | +0.22 | −0.03 | +0.26 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Schmaltz C | 19:56 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.36 | −0.30 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vladislav Kolyachonok D | 11:01 | +0.11 | +0.14 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Cooley C | 18:59 | 2 | +0.03 | +0.32 | −0.46 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 | −0.05 | |
| Barrett Hayton C | 14:42 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Kevin Stenlund C | 15:07 | −0.10 | +0.11 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Nick Bjugstad C | 13:19 | −0.14 | −0.05 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Lawson Crouse L | 12:36 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.13 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Matias Maccelli L | 14:38 | −0.26 | −0.17 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Kesselring D | 17:11 | −0.27 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 20:34 | −0.39 | −0.20 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Carcone L | 13:52 | −0.41 | −0.19 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Olli Maatta D | 23:58 | −0.47 | −0.48 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack McBain C | 13:56 | −0.51 | −0.33 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.01 | ||
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 13:10 | −0.66 | +0.11 | −0.77 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka G | 64:48 | +1.47 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.