VAN beat COL 3–1. Expected goals were close to even (COL 2.7, VAN 2.4), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Kiefer Sherwood scored at 16:14 of the first, moving VAN’s win probability from 53% to 71%. Thatcher Demko saved 2.3 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | COL–VAN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 16:14 |  VAN | Kiefer Sherwood from Danton Heinen, Pius Suter | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 16:04 | VAN | Kiefer SherwoodSH unassisted | 0–2 | 75% → 90% |
| P3 17:25 | VAN | Kiefer SherwoodEN from Quinn Hughes | 0–3 | 99% → 100% |
| P3 19:14 | COL | Valeri NichushkinPP from Mikko Rantanen, Cale Makar | 1–3 | 0% → 0% |
Every player
Show both lineups
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 22:46 | 1 | +0.38 | −0.20 | +0.58 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tye Felhaber L | 4:34 | +0.04 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Parker Kelly C | 11:54 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 25:01 | −0.00 | −0.10 | −0.31 | +0.10 | −0.01 | +0.40 | −0.08 | ||
| Calvin de Haan D | 13:08 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 17:17 | −0.06 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Joel Kiviranta L | 10:18 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Devon Toews D | 27:48 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cale Makar D | 28:51 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.14 | −0.23 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Keaton Middleton D | 9:00 | −0.15 | +0.08 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikko Rantanen R | 24:14 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.10 | −0.15 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Logan O'Connor R | 13:18 | −0.21 | −0.02 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Malinski D | 15:51 | −0.21 | −0.03 | −0.21 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Wagner R | 5:29 | −0.29 | −0.09 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 20:07 | −0.41 | −0.06 | −0.37 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Ivan C | 9:53 | −0.43 | −0.13 | −0.31 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Samuel Girard D | 19:38 | −0.44 | −0.18 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Ross Colton C | 20:02 | −0.62 | −0.07 | −0.53 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Blackwood G | 56:51 | +0.44 |
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kiefer Sherwood L | 12:45 | 3 | +1.27 | +0.17 | +1.11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Juulsen D | 18:45 | +0.24 | +0.24 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Boeser R | 19:11 | +0.17 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.20 | −0.02 | ||
| Carson Soucy D | 24:16 | +0.14 | +0.22 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nils Hoglander L | 7:48 | +0.14 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Garland R | 20:46 | +0.07 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pius Suter C | 14:26 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Max Sasson C | 12:59 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dakota Joshua C | 8:52 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Vincent Desharnais D | 16:24 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake DeBrusk L | 15:28 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Teddy Blueger C | 15:16 | −0.14 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Tyler Myers D | 21:27 | −0.19 | +0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Quinn Hughes D | 25:14 | 1 | −0.20 | +0.02 | −0.23 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Brannstrom D | 10:39 | −0.21 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| J.T. Miller C | 17:52 | −0.23 | +0.06 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.07 | ||
| Danton Heinen L | 13:22 | 1 | −0.23 | +0.13 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Elias Pettersson C | 16:30 | −0.38 | +0.03 | −0.45 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Thatcher Demko G | 60:00 | +2.32 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.