ANA beat CBJ 4–3 in overtime. ANA lost the expected-goals battle 2.9 to 3.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Alex Killorn scored at 1:43 of overtime, moving ANA’s win probability from 48% to 100%. John Gibson saved 1.6 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ANA–CBJ | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 16:33 |  ANA | Mason McTavish from Robby Fabbri, Jackson LaCombe | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 17:09 |  CBJ | Kirill MarchenkoPP from Kent Johnson, Zach Werenski | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P1 17:43 | CBJ | Cole Sillinger from Zachary Aston-Reese, Mathieu Olivier | 1–2 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 13:56 | ANA | Alex Killorn from Ryan Strome, Troy Terry | 2–2 | 25% → 47% |
| P3 11:25 | CBJ | James van Riemsdyk from Damon Severson, Kevin Labanc | 2–3 | 52% → 84% |
| P3 17:14 | ANA | Jackson LaCombePP from Troy Terry, Alex Killorn | 3–3 | 9% → 49% |
| OT 1:43 | ANA | Alex Killorn from Robby Fabbri | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Killorn L | 17:57 | 2 | 1 | +1.42 | +0.06 | +1.36 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Jackson LaCombe D | 22:16 | 1 | 1 | +0.72 | −0.18 | +0.74 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 |
| Mason McTavish C | 15:30 | 1 | +0.33 | −0.12 | +0.65 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.20 | +0.03 | |
| Radko Gudas D | 19:34 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock McGinn L | 11:45 | +0.02 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jansen Harkins C | 11:18 | +0.01 | +0.06 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Brian Dumoulin D | 20:26 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Mintyukov D | 18:30 | −0.09 | +0.05 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Leason R | 15:17 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Olen Zellweger D | 18:23 | −0.14 | +0.04 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Frank Vatrano R | 16:15 | −0.19 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Strome C | 15:59 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.04 | −0.18 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Isac Lundeström C | 13:06 | −0.24 | −0.08 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Robby Fabbri C | 16:15 | 2 | −0.24 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.20 | +0.03 | |
| Cutter Gauthier L | 15:35 | −0.29 | −0.19 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Trouba D | 20:25 | −0.40 | −0.23 | −0.19 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Troy Terry R | 17:44 | 2 | −0.41 | +0.01 | −0.41 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Leo Carlsson C | 16:29 | −0.48 | −0.12 | −0.33 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| John Gibson G | 61:32 | +1.64 |
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James van Riemsdyk L | 17:24 | 1 | +0.81 | +0.21 | +0.57 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Cole Sillinger C | 15:44 | 1 | +0.33 | −0.19 | +0.59 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Kirill Marchenko R | 19:47 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.05 | +0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Monahan C | 20:48 | +0.12 | +0.19 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Sean Kuraly C | 9:45 | +0.11 | +0.16 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Jake Christiansen D | 11:19 | +0.08 | +0.10 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Damon Severson D | 22:26 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.27 | −0.16 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Labanc R | 9:23 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Fantilli C | 18:37 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.20 | −0.03 | ||
| Ivan Provorov D | 23:17 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dante Fabbro D | 22:55 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Johnson D | 10:53 | −0.05 | +0.07 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitri Voronkov L | 19:30 | −0.15 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary Aston-Reese C | 13:25 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.04 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikael Pyyhtia L | 8:07 | −0.26 | +0.05 | −0.30 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kent Johnson C | 18:22 | 1 | −0.40 | +0.17 | −0.57 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Werenski D | 28:20 | 1 | −0.51 | +0.06 | −0.59 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mathieu Olivier R | 13:07 | 1 | −0.60 | −0.05 | −0.34 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.20 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jet Greaves G | 61:43 | −0.85 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.