STL beat VAN 4–3 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (STL 3.0, VAN 2.8), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Dylan Holloway scored at 1:40 of overtime, moving STL’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Thatcher Demko allowed 1.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | STL–VAN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:02 |  VAN | Dakota Joshua from Conor Garland, Tyler Myers | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 9:15 | STL | Zachary Bolduc from Dylan Holloway | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 17:30 | STL | Robert ThomasSH from Colton Parayko, Pavel Buchnevich | 2–1 | 46% → 64% |
| P2 16:18 | STL | Jordan KyrouPP from Robert Thomas, Justin Faulk | 3–1 | 72% → 87% |
| P2 18:32 | VAN | Elias PetterssonPP from Brock Boeser, Conor Garland | 3–2 | 12% → 28% |
| P3 18:08 | VAN | Jake DeBruskPP from Elias Pettersson, Brock Boeser | 3–3 | 8% → 50% |
| OT 1:40 | STL | Dylan Holloway from Robert Thomas | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Thomas C | 19:35 | 1 | 2 | +1.58 | +0.24 | +0.85 | +0.43 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 |
| Dylan Holloway L | 17:04 | 1 | 1 | +0.49 | +0.20 | +0.07 | +0.22 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Zachary Bolduc R | 11:09 | 1 | +0.45 | +0.16 | +0.38 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Kyrou R | 16:19 | 1 | +0.31 | +0.20 | +0.17 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Colton Parayko D | 24:04 | 1 | +0.13 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Saad L | 13:18 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Faulk D | 24:43 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.06 | −0.07 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matthew Kessel D | 13:05 | +0.02 | +0.06 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre-Olivier Joseph D | 11:52 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan Walker L | 9:47 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 18:33 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.09 | −0.10 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Philip Broberg D | 23:25 | −0.08 | +0.10 | −0.14 | −0.06 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Neighbours L | 17:01 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Radek Faksa C | 12:41 | −0.10 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Ryan Suter D | 22:09 | −0.11 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.12 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexey Toropchenko R | 12:45 | −0.15 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Schenn C | 16:57 | −0.35 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.20 | +0.01 | ||
| Oskar Sundqvist C | 14:21 | −0.43 | +0.09 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.40 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joel Hofer G | 61:40 | −0.21 |
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake DeBrusk L | 20:05 | 1 | +0.70 | +0.05 | +0.53 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Conor Garland R | 21:26 | 2 | +0.52 | +0.16 | −0.05 | +0.17 | +0.03 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Elias Pettersson C | 23:15 | 1 | 1 | +0.45 | +0.14 | +0.23 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.20 | −0.03 |
| Dakota Joshua C | 14:41 | 1 | +0.25 | −0.06 | +0.35 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Noah Juulsen D | 16:17 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Myers D | 22:31 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.08 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Danton Heinen L | 10:47 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Aatu Räty C | 9:54 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Vincent Desharnais D | 12:33 | −0.07 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nils Hoglander L | 10:56 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Quinn Hughes D | 29:50 | −0.10 | +0.11 | −0.14 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Sasson C | 9:57 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Mark Friedman D | 14:49 | −0.15 | −0.13 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kiefer Sherwood L | 13:56 | −0.18 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Brock Boeser R | 20:21 | 2 | −0.18 | +0.05 | −0.07 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Teddy Blueger C | 12:36 | −0.25 | −0.11 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Pius Suter C | 18:01 | −0.26 | −0.29 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Carson Soucy D | 20:23 | −0.57 | −0.33 | +0.00 | −0.08 | +0.04 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Thatcher Demko G | 60:47 | −1.02 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.