CGY beat NSH 4–3. CGY also won the expected-goals battle 3.0 to 1.6: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Jonathan Huberdeau scored on the power play at 18:41 of the second, moving CGY’s win probability from 48% to 72%. Dan Vladar allowed 1.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CGY–NSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:45 |  NSH | Jonathan Marchessault from Steven Stamkos, Filip Forsberg | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 10:22 | CGY | Nazem Kadri from Jonathan Huberdeau | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 10:52 | NSH | Tommy Novak from Mark Jankowski, Luke Evangelista | 1–2 | 53% → 70% |
| P2 2:27 | CGY | Kevin Rooney from Walker Duehr | 2–2 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 7:41 | NSH | Jonathan Marchessault from Filip Forsberg | 2–3 | 53% → 73% |
| P2 13:49 | CGY | Brayden Pachal from Jakob Pelletier, Kevin Rooney | 3–3 | 25% → 47% |
| P2 18:41 | CGY | Jonathan HuberdeauPP from Matt Coronato, Connor Zary | 4–3 | 48% → 72% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brayden Pachal D | 14:38 | 1 | +1.11 | +0.23 | +0.88 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Rooney C | 9:05 | 1 | 1 | +0.89 | +0.13 | +0.76 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 20:09 | 1 | 1 | +0.63 | −0.01 | +0.61 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Nazem Kadri C | 18:56 | 1 | +0.39 | −0.08 | +0.49 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Blake Coleman L | 16:32 | +0.32 | +0.31 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Martin Pospisil C | 16:04 | +0.26 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.40 | −0.01 | ||
| Andrei Kuzmenko L | 16:21 | +0.23 | +0.22 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Daniil Miromanov D | 20:44 | +0.22 | +0.26 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 22:55 | +0.20 | +0.21 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Bean D | 13:15 | +0.15 | +0.15 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Walker Duehr R | 8:29 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jakob Pelletier L | 6:34 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 16:57 | +0.04 | +0.11 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Kevin Bahl D | 21:34 | +0.01 | +0.08 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Zary C | 13:31 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.28 | −0.47 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Matt Coronato R | 18:05 | 1 | −0.34 | +0.11 | −0.40 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Rasmus Andersson D | 23:23 | −0.42 | −0.11 | −0.32 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Backlund C | 18:48 | −0.69 | +0.08 | −0.52 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.20 | −0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dan Vladar G | 60:00 | −1.37 |
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 18:45 | 2 | +1.56 | +0.01 | +1.57 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tommy Novak C | 16:07 | 1 | +0.65 | +0.13 | +0.51 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Fedor Svechkov C | 10:51 | +0.05 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.01 | ||
| Roman Josi D | 5:32 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Evangelista R | 16:23 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Wilsby D | 22:34 | −0.07 | +0.09 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Sissons C | 14:45 | −0.16 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Michael McCarron C | 15:27 | −0.17 | −0.24 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Juuso Parssinen C | 9:59 | −0.17 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Steven Stamkos C | 19:08 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.02 | −0.15 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Luke Schenn D | 20:36 | −0.19 | −0.15 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary L'Heureux L | 11:38 | −0.20 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc Del Gaizo D | 20:24 | −0.20 | +0.06 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Smith L | 16:25 | −0.23 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Blankenburg D | 19:15 | −0.23 | −0.21 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Jankowski L | 11:59 | 1 | −0.29 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.01 | |
| Filip Forsberg L | 19:47 | 2 | −0.30 | −0.02 | −0.28 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brady Skjei D | 27:54 | −0.45 | −0.43 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros G | 58:38 | −1.14 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.