CAR beat SJS 3–2. CAR also won the expected-goals battle 4.0 to 2.7: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Jalen Chatfield scored at 17:21 of the third, moving CAR’s win probability from 51% to 92%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SJS–CAR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:26 |  CAR | Shayne Gostisbehere from William Carrier, Jack Roslovic | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 18:51 | SJS | Luke Kunin from Macklin Celebrini, Cody Ceci | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 11:44 | SJS | Luke Kunin from William Eklund | 2–1 | 47% → 69% |
| P3 4:11 | CAR | Brent Burns from Sebastian Aho, Martin Necas | 2–2 | 25% → 52% |
| P3 17:21 | CAR | Jalen Chatfield unassisted | 2–3 | 51% → 92% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Kunin C | 16:31 | 2 | +1.30 | −0.17 | +1.47 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jake Walman D | 22:46 | +0.05 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Wennberg C | 18:11 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Macklin Celebrini C | 22:39 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.07 | −0.13 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Cody Ceci D | 21:44 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.04 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nikolai Kovalenko R | 9:23 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nico Sturm C | 7:21 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Tyler Toffoli C | 16:59 | −0.12 | +0.11 | −0.44 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Timothy Liljegren D | 15:51 | −0.13 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Barclay Goodrow C | 15:30 | −0.19 | −0.22 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Ty Dellandrea C | 7:52 | −0.21 | −0.09 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Henry Thrun D | 13:45 | −0.35 | −0.33 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mario Ferraro D | 20:09 | −0.39 | −0.06 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Granlund C | 21:08 | −0.44 | −0.27 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 14:56 | −0.44 | −0.18 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Eklund L | 18:21 | 1 | −0.50 | −0.18 | −0.30 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Klim Kostin C | 13:48 | −0.60 | −0.04 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.40 | +0.00 | ||
| Jan Rutta D | 16:51 | −0.61 | −0.42 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Vitek Vanecek G | 58:15 | +0.52 |
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Chatfield D | 17:02 | 1 | +1.16 | +0.28 | +0.89 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 18:08 | 1 | +0.62 | −0.01 | +0.63 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brent Burns D | 21:48 | 1 | +0.56 | +0.20 | +0.33 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Seth Jarvis R | 20:44 | +0.32 | +0.33 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaccob Slavin D | 22:05 | +0.21 | +0.18 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 15:51 | +0.21 | +0.28 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Dmitry Orlov D | 20:28 | +0.15 | +0.23 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Carrier L | 11:40 | 1 | +0.14 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Sebastian Aho C | 21:28 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.15 | −0.18 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jack Roslovic C | 10:18 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.17 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Jack Drury C | 3:06 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Eric Robinson L | 13:03 | −0.09 | +0.18 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 19:23 | −0.12 | +0.02 | −0.35 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Jackson Blake R | 9:46 | −0.13 | +0.05 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 15:10 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Necas C | 20:01 | 1 | −0.23 | +0.17 | −0.39 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Staal C | 18:15 | −0.27 | +0.10 | −0.30 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Sean Walker D | 16:12 | −0.29 | +0.08 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Pyotr Kochetkov G | 59:32 | +0.61 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.