TOR beat NJD 2–1 in overtime. TOR lost the expected-goals battle 2.8 to 4.6 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Auston Matthews scored at 2:51 of overtime, moving TOR’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Anthony Stolarz saved 4.0 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TOR–NJD | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 7:16 |  NJD | Ondrej Palat from Jesper Bratt | 0–1 | 53% → 73% |
| P3 10:42 |  TOR | Pontus HolmbergSH from Connor Dewar, Chris Tanev | 1–1 | 16% → 47% |
| OT 2:51 | TOR | Auston Matthews unassisted | 2–1 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pontus Holmberg R | 10:48 | 1 | +0.77 | −0.10 | +0.85 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Conor Timmins D | 17:03 | +0.14 | +0.17 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Steven Lorentz C | 9:27 | +0.13 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| William Nylander R | 21:23 | +0.07 | −0.32 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.40 | +0.00 | ||
| Fraser Minten C | 11:12 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Max Pacioretty L | 15:43 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Reaves R | 6:37 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Philippe Myers D | 14:33 | −0.11 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mitch Marner R | 23:47 | −0.12 | −0.10 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Dewar C | 8:53 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Auston Matthews C | 21:41 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Chris Tanev D | 20:38 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.05 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 24:24 | −0.23 | −0.09 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Benoit D | 19:01 | −0.24 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Domi C | 14:57 | −0.28 | +0.07 | −0.34 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Matthew Knies L | 20:06 | −0.40 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Rielly D | 20:45 | −0.56 | −0.20 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| John Tavares C | 19:35 | −0.58 | −0.42 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Stolarz G | 62:51 | +4.03 |
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ondrej Palat L | 13:45 | 1 | +0.60 | −0.09 | +0.68 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Johnathan Kovacevic D | 18:01 | +0.34 | +0.14 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Paul Cotter C | 14:29 | +0.11 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Nico Hischier C | 22:29 | +0.09 | +0.26 | −0.26 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.08 | ||
| Dawson Mercer C | 19:58 | +0.08 | +0.32 | −0.22 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brenden Dillon D | 17:26 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Tatar L | 7:11 | −0.03 | +0.16 | −0.39 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Dougie Hamilton D | 22:01 | −0.03 | +0.03 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Dowling C | 7:44 | −0.04 | +0.15 | −0.17 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Pesce D | 21:43 | −0.20 | −0.04 | −0.18 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonas Siegenthaler D | 17:06 | −0.26 | +0.05 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Hughes D | 20:02 | −0.30 | +0.28 | −0.35 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan Bastian R | 7:02 | −0.31 | +0.03 | −0.31 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Bratt L | 19:10 | 1 | −0.35 | +0.09 | −0.45 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Hughes C | 22:09 | −0.40 | −0.02 | −0.37 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Erik Haula L | 14:40 | −0.48 | −0.04 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | −0.01 | ||
| Timo Meier R | 18:27 | −0.54 | +0.19 | −0.72 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Stefan Noesen R | 19:10 | −0.73 | −0.15 | −0.58 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Markstrom G | 62:51 | +0.40 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.