DET beat BUF 6–5 in a shootout. DET also won the expected-goals battle 3.7 to 2.4: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Moritz Seider scored at 15:42 of the third, moving DET’s win probability from 10% to 49%. James Reimer allowed 3.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DET–BUF | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:38 | BUF | Zach Benson from Dylan Cozens, Peyton Krebs | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 4:05 | DET | Alex DeBrincat from Dylan Larkin | 1–1 | 31% → 47% |
| P1 4:46 | DET | Andrew Copp from J.T. Compher, Moritz Seider | 2–1 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 10:25 | BUF | Tage Thompson from Jason Zucker | 2–2 | 36% → 53% |
| P1 15:26 | BUF | Jason ZuckerPP from Peyton Krebs, Ryan McLeod | 2–3 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 1:05 | DET | Lucas Raymond from Dylan Larkin, Erik Gustafsson | 3–3 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 2:26 | BUF | Nicolas Aube-Kubel from Beck Malenstyn, Owen Power | 3–4 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 9:46 | BUF | Jason Zucker from Ryan McLeod | 3–5 | 74% → 88% |
| P3 10:27 | DET | Andrew Copp from Ben Chiarot, J.T. Compher | 4–5 | 4% → 17% |
| P3 15:42 | DET | Moritz Seider from Lucas Raymond, Simon Edvinsson | 5–5 | 10% → 49% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Raymond L | 22:39 | 1 | 1 | +1.66 | +0.20 | +0.59 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | +0.66 |
| Andrew Copp C | 14:01 | 2 | +1.55 | +0.01 | +1.50 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | |
| Dylan Larkin C | 22:23 | 2 | +0.97 | +0.22 | −0.31 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | +1.01 | |
| Moritz Seider D | 27:07 | 1 | 1 | +0.63 | +0.08 | +0.72 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Alex DeBrincat R | 19:55 | 1 | +0.56 | −0.02 | +0.37 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.20 | −0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 16:35 | +0.37 | +0.23 | −0.09 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| J.T. Compher L | 18:40 | 2 | +0.05 | +0.14 | −0.08 | −0.04 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Jeff Petry D | 18:49 | +0.04 | +0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Gustafsson D | 14:57 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Simon Edvinsson D | 23:05 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.05 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ben Chiarot D | 20:35 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.07 | −0.17 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonatan Berggren R | 6:45 | −0.12 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Joe Veleno C | 8:12 | −0.16 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| Michael Rasmussen C | 14:26 | −0.16 | −0.03 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Justin Holl D | 14:48 | −0.21 | −0.16 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marco Kasper C | 16:16 | −0.25 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.04 | −0.00 | ||
| Tyler Motte C | 9:21 | −0.28 | −0.26 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Patrick Kane R | 18:26 | −0.40 | −0.05 | −0.29 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.11 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Sebastian Cossa G | 45:00 | −0.61 |
| Ville Husso G | 20:00 | −2.38 |
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Zucker L | 15:54 | 2 | 1 | +1.62 | +0.05 | +1.38 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.20 | −0.01 | −0.00 |
| Zach Benson L | 13:52 | 1 | +0.81 | +0.15 | +0.86 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Nicolas Aube-Kubel R | 10:35 | 1 | +0.75 | −0.02 | +0.76 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Tage Thompson C | 18:48 | 1 | +0.37 | +0.03 | +0.74 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.32 | |
| Alex Tuch R | 20:33 | +0.17 | −0.29 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.67 | ||
| Peyton Krebs C | 16:14 | 2 | +0.14 | +0.15 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | |
| Ryan McLeod C | 17:13 | 2 | +0.09 | +0.16 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Connor Clifton D | 17:08 | +0.04 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Kozak C | 9:11 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Ryan Johnson D | 20:50 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Bryson D | 11:21 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Greenway L | 14:39 | −0.11 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| Beck Malenstyn L | 11:54 | 1 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Owen Power D | 24:57 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Bowen Byram D | 28:11 | −0.27 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Cozens C | 17:55 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.29 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Henri Jokiharju D | 18:26 | −0.29 | +0.04 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| JJ Peterka R | 17:32 | −0.35 | +0.11 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.29 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| James Reimer G | 64:47 | −3.68 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.