COL beat NJD 4–0. COL lost the expected-goals battle 1.8 to 2.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Ross Colton scored at 4:07 of the first, moving COL’s win probability from 47% to 63%. Scott Wedgewood saved 3.0 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | COL–NJD | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:07 |  COL | Ross Colton from Casey Mittelstadt, Valeri Nichushkin | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 14:52 | COL | Logan O'Connor from Calvin de Haan, Joel Kiviranta | 2–0 | 64% → 78% |
| P2 14:36 | COL | Artturi Lehkonen from Casey Mittelstadt | 3–0 | 86% → 96% |
| P3 16:05 | COL | Parker KellyEN from Mikko Rantanen, Calvin de Haan | 4–0 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan O'Connor R | 13:17 | 1 | +0.74 | −0.03 | +0.78 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Ross Colton C | 14:40 | 1 | +0.68 | −0.03 | +0.74 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 24:51 | 1 | +0.46 | −0.07 | +0.51 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Mikko Rantanen R | 22:12 | 1 | +0.28 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.20 | −0.02 | |
| Keaton Middleton D | 13:24 | +0.05 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Calvin de Haan D | 14:53 | 2 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 14:55 | 2 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Ivan Ivan C | 6:22 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Joel Kiviranta L | 12:18 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nikita Prishchepov C | 6:35 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Wagner R | 7:11 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Parker Kelly C | 13:02 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cale Makar D | 25:20 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.31 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Devon Toews D | 22:32 | −0.12 | −0.12 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Malinski D | 19:24 | −0.24 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 20:18 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.14 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Samuel Girard D | 21:04 | −0.37 | −0.13 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 21:46 | −0.38 | −0.06 | −0.43 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Scott Wedgewood G | 60:00 | +3.00 |
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesper Bratt L | 21:56 | +0.09 | +0.09 | −0.22 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Dougie Hamilton D | 21:08 | +0.07 | +0.09 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Johnathan Kovacevic D | 17:02 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonas Siegenthaler D | 15:42 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Tatar L | 10:36 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Dowling C | 8:11 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Pesce D | 20:01 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Paul Cotter C | 12:02 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brenden Dillon D | 17:13 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan Légaré R | 10:02 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Hughes D | 21:02 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dawson Mercer C | 14:12 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.30 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.01 | ||
| Erik Haula L | 12:17 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Stefan Noesen R | 19:11 | −0.26 | +0.13 | −0.16 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.20 | −0.01 | ||
| Jack Hughes C | 24:36 | −0.34 | +0.13 | −0.40 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.07 | ||
| Ondrej Palat L | 13:41 | −0.37 | +0.01 | −0.22 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Nico Hischier C | 20:16 | −0.39 | +0.04 | −0.44 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Timo Meier R | 19:48 | −0.59 | +0.05 | −0.66 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Allen G | 57:04 | −1.12 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.