OTT beat NSH 3–1. OTT lost the expected-goals battle 2.8 to 3.2 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Jacob Bernard-Docker scored at 5:07 of the second, moving OTT’s win probability from 53% to 73%. Linus Ullmark saved 2.4 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NSH–OTT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 5:07 | OTT | Jacob Bernard-Docker from Tim Stützle, Adam Gaudette | 0–1 | 53% → 73% |
| P2 16:52 | OTT | Claude Giroux from Tim Stützle | 0–2 | 76% → 91% |
| P3 12:37 | OTT | Nick Cousins from Michael Amadio | 0–3 | 98% → 100% |
| P3 18:03 |  NSH | Fedor Svechkov from Mark Jankowski, Zachary L'Heureux | 1–3 | 0% → 0% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fedor Svechkov C | 14:16 | 1 | +0.29 | −0.04 | +0.41 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Adam Wilsby D | 18:24 | +0.17 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Schenn D | 17:49 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Jankowski L | 14:45 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.09 | −0.33 | +0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Cole Smith L | 13:10 | −0.13 | +0.06 | −0.10 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Carrier D | 15:39 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.08 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 15:53 | −0.15 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Gustav Nyquist R | 19:00 | −0.16 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Tommy Novak C | 13:54 | −0.18 | +0.05 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.07 | ||
| Brady Skjei D | 20:29 | −0.19 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Sissons C | 13:22 | −0.21 | +0.04 | −0.25 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Luke Evangelista R | 16:21 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.13 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Blankenburg D | 18:12 | −0.22 | −0.04 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary L'Heureux L | 12:38 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.03 | −0.11 | +0.08 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Steven Stamkos C | 15:47 | −0.30 | −0.14 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Roman Josi D | 26:04 | −0.31 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.12 | +0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael McCarron C | 12:36 | −0.32 | +0.02 | −0.05 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.20 | −0.01 | ||
| Filip Forsberg L | 17:48 | −0.46 | −0.14 | −0.26 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros G | 57:53 | +0.21 |
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Bernard-Docker D | 14:08 | 1 | +0.47 | +0.02 | +0.44 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Amadio R | 17:14 | 1 | +0.38 | +0.06 | −0.09 | +0.18 | +0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Claude Giroux R | 12:08 | 1 | +0.36 | −0.02 | +0.35 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Nick Cousins C | 17:21 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.05 | +0.20 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Kleven D | 17:41 | +0.08 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ridly Greig C | 13:40 | +0.06 | −0.04 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.20 | −0.01 | ||
| Adam Gaudette R | 9:31 | 1 | +0.06 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Shane Pinto C | 17:56 | +0.03 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Nick Jensen D | 23:09 | −0.01 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.09 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tim Stützle C | 16:33 | 2 | −0.02 | −0.10 | −0.11 | +0.44 | −0.04 | −0.20 | −0.02 | |
| Jake Sanderson D | 22:40 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.11 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Zack Ostapchuk C | 10:20 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Gregor L | 11:46 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Thomas Chabot D | 22:22 | −0.11 | +0.08 | −0.06 | −0.10 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drake Batherson R | 18:35 | −0.14 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.14 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Hamonic D | 15:20 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.07 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Norris C | 18:20 | −0.32 | +0.10 | −0.30 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Brady Tkachuk L | 19:21 | −0.36 | +0.00 | −0.26 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Linus Ullmark G | 59:55 | +2.44 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.