FLA beat PHI 7–5. FLA lost the expected-goals battle 2.4 to 2.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Sam Reinhart scored on the power play at 18:01 of the third, moving FLA’s win probability from 51% to 93%. Aleksei Kolosov allowed 2.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | FLA–PHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:36 |  FLA | Evan Rodrigues unassisted | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 6:57 | FLA | Niko Mikkola from Matthew Tkachuk, Jesper Boqvist | 2–0 | 63% → 76% |
| P2 3:00 | FLA | Aleksander BarkovPP from Sam Reinhart, Matthew Tkachuk | 3–0 | 82% → 93% |
| P2 7:13 | PHI | Tyson FoersterPP from Joel Farabee, Matvei Michkov | 3–1 | 6% → 17% |
| P2 9:31 | PHI | Nick Seeler unassisted | 3–2 | 16% → 32% |
| P2 13:35 | FLA | Carter VerhaeghePP from Matthew Tkachuk, Aleksander Barkov | 4–2 | 70% → 86% |
| P2 17:41 | PHI | Owen Tippett from Matvei Michkov | 4–3 | 12% → 29% |
| P2 18:04 | PHI | Owen Tippett from Matvei Michkov | 4–4 | 28% → 53% |
| P3 5:39 | PHI | Garnet Hathaway from Scott Laughton, Rasmus Ristolainen | 4–5 | 52% → 80% |
| P3 14:43 | FLA | Gustav Forsling from Sam Bennett, Evan Rodrigues | 5–5 | 12% → 49% |
| P3 18:01 | FLA | Sam ReinhartPP from Carter Verhaeghe, Matthew Tkachuk | 6–5 | 51% → 93% |
| P3 19:49 | FLA | Matthew TkachukEN from Sam Reinhart, Dmitry Kulikov | 7–5 | 98% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aleksander Barkov C | 23:31 | 1 | 1 | +0.90 | +0.23 | +0.60 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 |
| Carter Verhaeghe C | 19:35 | 1 | 1 | +0.89 | +0.13 | +0.57 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 |
| Gustav Forsling D | 23:27 | 1 | +0.85 | −0.01 | +0.88 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Niko Mikkola D | 22:19 | 1 | +0.84 | +0.04 | +0.82 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Reinhart C | 23:50 | 1 | 2 | +0.65 | +0.20 | +0.49 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Evan Rodrigues C | 13:10 | 1 | 1 | +0.56 | +0.04 | +0.54 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 17:57 | 1 | 4 | +0.17 | −0.07 | −0.17 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.40 | +0.00 |
| Eetu Luostarinen C | 13:07 | +0.15 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 | −0.01 | ||
| Nate Schmidt D | 17:12 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anton Lundell C | 12:35 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Jonah Gadjovich L | 6:58 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitry Kulikov D | 20:02 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| A.J. Greer L | 8:06 | −0.22 | −0.06 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jesper Boqvist C | 13:23 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.22 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Bennett C | 16:29 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.20 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Aaron Ekblad D | 22:12 | −0.28 | +0.13 | −0.05 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.40 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Nosek L | 7:42 | −0.30 | −0.08 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Adam Boqvist D | 11:26 | −0.40 | −0.19 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Knight G | 59:16 | −1.59 |
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Tippett R | 13:38 | 2 | +1.69 | +0.02 | +1.48 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Seeler D | 14:48 | 1 | +0.84 | +0.06 | +0.78 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyson Foerster R | 12:48 | 1 | +0.80 | −0.02 | +0.81 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Garnet Hathaway R | 12:07 | 1 | +0.66 | +0.10 | +0.37 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 17:24 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.09 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Egor Zamula D | 13:10 | +0.06 | +0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Poehling C | 12:47 | +0.05 | +0.08 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Noah Cates L | 12:16 | +0.03 | +0.02 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.20 | −0.01 | ||
| Morgan Frost C | 10:03 | −0.08 | +0.03 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Cam York D | 23:03 | −0.13 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matvei Michkov R | 14:21 | 3 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Emil Andrae D | 19:40 | −0.16 | +0.08 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Sanheim D | 25:24 | −0.22 | −0.09 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Couturier C | 22:40 | −0.27 | −0.10 | −0.16 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Scott Laughton C | 12:27 | 1 | −0.29 | +0.07 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Farabee L | 20:08 | 1 | −0.36 | −0.00 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | −0.01 | |
| Bobby Brink R | 11:56 | −0.40 | −0.00 | −0.20 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Konecny R | 25:55 | −0.41 | −0.11 | −0.29 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ivan Fedotov G | 20:00 | −1.24 |
| Aleksei Kolosov G | 39:27 | −2.14 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.