PIT beat FLA 5–4 in overtime. PIT lost the expected-goals battle 1.8 to 3.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Bryan Rust scored at 1:31 of overtime, moving PIT’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Spencer Knight allowed 3.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | FLA–PIT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 9:20 | PIT | Owen Pickering from Blake Lizotte | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 10:32 | PIT | Evgeni Malkin from Philip Tomasino, Drew O'Connor | 0–2 | 70% → 83% |
| P1 17:24 | FLA | Matthew Tkachuk from Aleksander Barkov, Dmitry Kulikov | 1–2 | 15% → 29% |
| P2 6:54 | PIT | Kris Letang from Matt Grzelcyk, Blake Lizotte | 1–3 | 73% → 87% |
| P3 3:45 | PIT | Marcus Pettersson from Sidney Crosby, Rickard Rakell | 1–4 | 93% → 99% |
| P3 6:55 | FLA | Sam Bennett from Jesper Boqvist, Matthew Tkachuk | 2–4 | 1% → 5% |
| P3 8:58 | FLA | Adam Boqvist from Matthew Tkachuk, Jesper Boqvist | 3–4 | 4% → 18% |
| P3 11:27 | FLA | Matthew TkachukPP from Aaron Ekblad | 4–4 | 17% → 48% |
| OT 1:31 | PIT | Bryan Rust from Evgeni Malkin | 4–5 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 20:23 | 2 | 2 | +1.20 | +0.10 | +1.08 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Adam Boqvist D | 14:09 | 1 | +0.88 | +0.07 | +0.81 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Bennett C | 18:17 | 1 | +0.40 | −0.05 | +0.42 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Aaron Ekblad D | 24:44 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.32 | −0.17 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Carter Verhaeghe C | 20:28 | +0.11 | +0.24 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Evan Rodrigues C | 16:18 | +0.11 | +0.11 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.01 | ||
| Jonah Gadjovich L | 8:00 | +0.06 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gustav Forsling D | 24:29 | −0.02 | +0.08 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Niko Mikkola D | 20:42 | −0.03 | +0.04 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Aleksander Barkov C | 19:18 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.29 | −0.37 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Eetu Luostarinen C | 13:36 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Boqvist C | 12:20 | 2 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tomas Nosek L | 9:17 | −0.07 | +0.08 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anton Lundell C | 14:51 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Nate Schmidt D | 18:03 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitry Kulikov D | 17:19 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.11 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Reinhart C | 19:55 | −0.20 | +0.28 | −0.50 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| A.J. Greer L | 8:24 | −0.33 | +0.06 | −0.38 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Knight G | 61:31 | −3.25 |
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Pickering D | 11:35 | 1 | +0.86 | −0.06 | +0.91 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Evgeni Malkin C | 17:33 | 1 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.09 | +0.70 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.05 |
| Kris Letang D | 23:43 | 1 | +0.64 | −0.10 | +0.74 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marcus Pettersson D | 25:39 | 1 | +0.54 | −0.26 | +0.77 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Bryan Rust R | 20:51 | 1 | +0.50 | −0.14 | +0.68 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Philip Tomasino C | 15:39 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Grzelcyk D | 19:58 | 1 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Shea D | 13:48 | −0.04 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 14:02 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rickard Rakell R | 19:48 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sidney Crosby C | 20:57 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.09 | −0.11 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.08 | |
| Noel Acciari C | 11:12 | −0.17 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Matt Nieto L | 8:51 | −0.17 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Bunting L | 13:25 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew O'Connor L | 16:15 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.08 | −0.30 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Karlsson D | 25:30 | −0.25 | −0.14 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Lizotte C | 13:17 | 2 | −0.27 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.20 | −0.03 | |
| Kevin Hayes R | 8:52 | −0.34 | −0.18 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Tristan Jarry G | 61:31 | −0.21 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.