NJD beat NYR 5–1. NJD lost the expected-goals battle 3.1 to 3.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Jesper Bratt scored at 1:27 of the first, moving NJD’s win probability from 47% to 62%. Jacob Markstrom saved 3.1 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NJD–NYR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:27 |  NJD | Jesper Bratt from Ondrej Palat, Johnathan Kovacevic | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 7:10 | NJD | Dawson Mercer from Luke Hughes | 2–0 | 63% → 76% |
| P2 9:04 | NJD | Dougie HamiltonPP from Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt | 3–0 | 88% → 95% |
| P2 12:38 | NJD | Jack Hughes from Luke Hughes, Jesper Bratt | 4–0 | 96% → 99% |
| P2 13:29 | NYR | Chris KreiderPP from Mika Zibanejad, Artemi Panarin | 4–1 | 1% → 4% |
| P2 18:56 | NJD | Jack HughesPP from Jesper Bratt, Dougie Hamilton | 5–1 | 97% → 99% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Hughes C | 17:35 | 2 | 1 | +0.92 | −0.04 | +0.37 | +0.22 | −0.01 | +0.40 | −0.02 |
| Jesper Bratt L | 18:22 | 1 | 3 | +0.62 | −0.07 | +0.41 | +0.30 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Dawson Mercer C | 17:28 | 1 | +0.48 | −0.05 | +0.40 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Luke Hughes D | 20:05 | 2 | +0.17 | −0.08 | −0.09 | +0.39 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ondrej Palat L | 13:12 | 1 | +0.14 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.15 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dougie Hamilton D | 18:00 | 1 | 1 | +0.08 | −0.07 | +0.36 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Brett Pesce D | 20:16 | −0.04 | −0.07 | −0.03 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Paul Cotter C | 13:48 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Hardman L | 8:24 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Stefan Noesen R | 15:31 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Timo Meier R | 14:34 | −0.12 | −0.03 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brenden Dillon D | 17:51 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Johnathan Kovacevic D | 21:20 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Jonas Siegenthaler D | 18:12 | −0.18 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Nico Hischier C | 17:03 | −0.19 | −0.05 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.07 | ||
| Nathan Légaré R | 11:42 | −0.25 | −0.04 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Dowling C | 10:47 | −0.34 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.20 | −0.04 | ||
| Erik Haula L | 17:26 | −0.37 | −0.07 | −0.17 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Markstrom G | 60:00 | +3.15 |
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Trouba D | 16:45 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Braden Schneider D | 15:44 | −0.00 | +0.07 | −0.03 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Edstrom C | 9:01 | −0.01 | +0.06 | −0.24 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| K'Andre Miller D | 19:23 | −0.02 | +0.12 | −0.02 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zac Jones D | 18:37 | −0.04 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Carrick C | 12:01 | −0.05 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Vincent Trocheck C | 23:27 | −0.05 | +0.08 | −0.36 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.15 | ||
| Kaapo Kakko R | 15:41 | −0.08 | +0.05 | −0.08 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Jonny Brodzinski C | 7:47 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.07 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ryan Lindgren D | 17:51 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Filip Chytil C | 11:47 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Will Cuylle L | 16:05 | −0.12 | +0.06 | −0.12 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mika Zibanejad C | 21:29 | 1 | −0.18 | +0.07 | −0.32 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Artemi Panarin L | 16:43 | 1 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.17 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexis Lafrenière L | 12:34 | −0.23 | +0.05 | −0.18 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Reilly Smith R | 12:32 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Kreider L | 18:46 | 1 | −0.39 | +0.07 | −0.03 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.20 | −0.01 | |
| Adam Fox D | 25:37 | −0.44 | +0.06 | −0.13 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Igor Shesterkin G | 59:58 | −1.80 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.