VAN beat DET 5–4 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (VAN 3.5, DET 3.5), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Jake DeBrusk scored at 4:00 of overtime, moving VAN’s win probability from 48% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VAN–DET | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 13:57 |  DET | Jonatan Berggren from Erik Gustafsson, Marco Kasper | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 0:23 | VAN | Jake DeBruskPP from Elias Pettersson, Quinn Hughes | 1–1 | 33% → 48% |
| P2 1:06 | VAN | Jake DeBruskPP from Quinn Hughes, Brock Boeser | 2–1 | 48% → 66% |
| P2 6:38 | DET | Alex DeBrincat from Dylan Larkin, Lucas Raymond | 2–2 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 17:47 | VAN | Pius Suter from Dakota Joshua | 3–2 | 47% → 71% |
| P3 2:24 | DET | Michael RasmussenPP from Lucas Raymond, Dylan Larkin | 3–3 | 27% → 53% |
| P3 4:50 | DET | Vladimir Tarasenko from Jonatan Berggren, Marco Kasper | 3–4 | 53% → 79% |
| P3 16:40 | VAN | Erik Brannstrom from Elias Pettersson, Jake DeBrusk | 4–4 | 9% → 49% |
| OT 4:00 | VAN | Jake DeBrusk from Elias Pettersson, Quinn Hughes | 5–4 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake DeBrusk L | 21:46 | 3 | 1 | +2.28 | +0.20 | +2.08 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Erik Brannstrom D | 12:52 | 1 | +0.97 | +0.09 | +0.89 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pius Suter C | 19:29 | 1 | +0.65 | +0.27 | +0.36 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Conor Garland R | 19:43 | +0.45 | +0.30 | −0.10 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Sasson C | 6:19 | +0.25 | +0.11 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Dakota Joshua C | 13:52 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Aatu Räty C | 6:14 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Elias Pettersson C | 21:57 | 3 | +0.02 | +0.16 | −0.19 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Vincent Desharnais D | 13:05 | −0.07 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Boeser R | 20:39 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.08 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Quinn Hughes D | 31:04 | 3 | −0.14 | +0.38 | −0.54 | +0.06 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Teddy Blueger C | 14:11 | −0.16 | +0.05 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Tyler Myers D | 22:48 | −0.18 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nils Hoglander L | 10:33 | −0.22 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Juulsen D | 17:03 | −0.24 | −0.25 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carson Soucy D | 21:44 | −0.33 | −0.10 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Kiefer Sherwood L | 18:09 | −0.47 | −0.30 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Danton Heinen L | 13:10 | −0.57 | −0.33 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Kevin Lankinen G | 64:00 | −0.50 |
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Rasmussen C | 17:58 | 1 | +1.04 | +0.29 | +0.75 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jonatan Berggren R | 10:31 | 1 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.06 | +0.77 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Alex DeBrincat R | 19:33 | 1 | +0.53 | +0.15 | +0.55 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 15:01 | 1 | +0.47 | −0.18 | +0.65 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| J.T. Compher L | 17:11 | +0.16 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.20 | −0.04 | ||
| Andrew Copp C | 12:42 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ben Chiarot D | 22:43 | −0.02 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Veleno C | 9:12 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Fischer R | 11:03 | −0.07 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Erik Gustafsson D | 15:51 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.12 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Motte C | 14:31 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Petry D | 17:55 | −0.15 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Edvinsson D | 19:41 | −0.17 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Moritz Seider D | 27:53 | −0.17 | −0.09 | −0.12 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marco Kasper C | 12:11 | 2 | −0.25 | −0.19 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Justin Holl D | 13:09 | −0.26 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Larkin C | 24:44 | 2 | −0.58 | +0.17 | −0.93 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.01 | |
| Lucas Raymond L | 23:45 | 2 | −0.76 | +0.14 | −0.93 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cam Talbot G | 26:05 | −0.78 |
| Ville Husso G | 37:22 | −0.93 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.